Looking at Chelsea's talent pipeline ...

[coolhead23 1,146]

Found this interesting comprehensive article on our youth players ... as to where they would be in 5 years of time with some data in a tabular form along with timelines. Pretty lengthy article but it is really good and kudos to the writer for creating and sharing his thoughts in such detail format. Would really like to know everyone's views on the same.

Courtesy: We Ain't Got No History (URL: http://www.weaintgot...-and-the-talent)

Chelsea is loaded: a detailed review of the roster and the talent "pipeline"

There has recently been (and I suspect there always will be) quite a bit of discussion on WAGNH around three big topics. The first is what exactly Chelsea should be doing in any particular transfer window, including who should be bought or sold. The second topic relates to our formation, particularly what formation is best for the team now and moving forward and what players should play what positions. The third topic is the youth team, and how/when young players should be brought into the first team. These seem to have been a lot more top of mind in the last 6-9 months or so after the fall of AVB and his "project", the "new Chelsea" and the arrival of Hazard, Oscar and others, not to mention all the debates about Torres and Sturridge (and now even Mikel).

The more I see on these topics, the more I am convinced that they are inter-related and impossible to discuss without a comprehensive look at the entire roster, from the youth team, to loaned players and the current first team. The WAGNH team does a fabulous job of publishing articles on all of these topics (and a lot of others!) and really hitting the specifics, and a lot of fanposts and comments have been made on the subject, but to help organize my thinking I started putting together a global analysis of the current Chelsea team and the talent "pipeline" moving forward, which is something I haven't really seen all pulled together. The more I worked on it the more it started to really snowball into a bigger overall project, so I decided to share. My main purposes in publishing is that I think it is helpful in giving a sense of how our players cover the two main potential formations (4-2-3-1 and 4-3-3), it helps analyze/understand our needs in the transfer market. It especially helps to show potential areas for improvement and more importantly, the timing of those potential improvements and finally, it really shows how well we are prepared for the future. For example, we are absolutely stacked in the attacking midfield, but we may need to reinforce the central defense down the road (most people seem to intuitively know/understand this, but it is helpful to see the current players and the prospects to really understand how many players we will need, when we will need them and whether they should be starters or rotation players). Most importantly, it shows how amazingly good a player is going to have to be to break into the first team, whether the player is purchased, coming back from a loan or coming up from the youth team

So, to try to understand the current roster and the projected roster over the next few years, I have created a matrix with each Chelsea player under the age of 26 that is either (i) currently in the first team, (ii) out on loan or (iii) listed on the U-21 roster (any younger, U-18, U-16, is too hard to realistically project as almost none of those players will impact the first team in the next five years; in my opinion the only ones who have even an outside chance are on the U-21 roster anyway). For each player, I have listed his position, age, three and five year projections / expectations and a rating of their maximum potential (i.e., if all goes well, how good could this player be - it is absolutely not a measure of how good any single player is right now). The ratings are on a 1-10 scale similar to the per game ratings (10 is the best of the best, 6 is an EPL starter). I have also included a simple explanation of my rating and the expectations for each player where possible (all of which are my opinions only).

Before we go further, I want to acknowledge that I have not watched nearly enough of the loaned players or the youth team to really nail down these ratings, so there is definitely room for disagreement, and I would love for others with better knowledge to weigh in. However, I think they are pretty close for the older prospects. The interesting part is though, that we have so many talented young players in the pipeline that the rating for any individual player doesn't matter. Some highly-rated prospects are going to miss, but some lower-rated prospects will come out of nowhere to be stars. It also shows how strong the team could/should become. More importantly, the matrix shows how many young and incredibly talented players are already playing in our first team. For example, Oscar, Hazard and Mata will be are so young and already look set to hold positions in the band of 3 for years. It is going to take an incredible player to get playing time at that position. So, there will be some fantastic players on our current roster that will have long and very good careers but won't get near our first team. There is also room to disagree on the projections/explanations, and I think I could write a lot of separate fanposts on some of them (for example, how to best integrate Tomas Kalas into the first team, will Josh break through and if so when, would a pivot of Romeu and Mikel work now or in the future?), and this post is long enough already, so I am leaving those for another time.

With all that said, the matrix of players is below. Each player is listed in their primary position since it is too hard/complicated to show all of their secondary roles (Ramires at RW, Hazard at the #10). One of the things this takes away though is how flexible are attackers and central midfielders are though (almost all of them, including the prospects, can move around a fluid front and play multiple positions). I also tended to favor the more flexible players in moving them into the first team and making projections, so that is something to keep in mind as well in reviewing the expectations and the pipeline.

I m sorry but i m not able to put in the table here (it is just not ready to come in a tabular folrm) @ Mods if you help get the table in here would be really appreciated, i tried everything from my end

In connection with this matrix, and to simplify the impact on the first team, I have put together a timeline of the expected roster over the next five seasons. It has been color coded so that dark blue represents a projected Chelsea starter, light blue represents a potential Chelsea backup and yellow represents a question mark/area of opportunity. I think it really shows how talented the current team is, that most of the players will be hitting their primes in the next 2-3 years, and how hard it will be to even make the first team. It also shows how few purchases we need, but how a few selected top purchases could really make a big impact. I had to make a few guesses as to when players will transition out, but my general assumption is that most of the "older" current players (mainly Lampard, Cole and Terry) either won't be offered or won't accept new contracts. However, even if they do, the timing of the transitions will change but I still think the same younger players will move into the first team to ultimately replace them.

Some takeaways:

• The first team is absolutely loaded with young attackers that will provide a foundation for a long time. It will be very hard for anyone to break into that lineup. When you look at how many players should be starters or key players for the next 5 years it is amazing, especially when you consider that most of them should only get better.
  
• Several of the players listed as backups will be "slightly less preferred starters". We play so many fixtures that rotation, injuries and tactics mean that the primary backups in the chart like Moses, Ramires and Cahill will play as much as the starters. The ideal is really for any and all of our players to be capable of starting, so the manager can select a side for any given match based on form, fitness, injuries, tactics and importance of the match. So, I have listed a "first choice" starting lineup, but in my opinion this team has amazing depth and everyone in the flow chart will play quite a bit.
  
• We are short strikers. If Sturridge leaves over a lack of playing time (or anything else), we are almost guaranteed to buy someone.
  
• The team looks best suited to a 4-3-3 moving forward, but we are only marginally less suited to the 4-3-2-1. If we add a young Modric type player we should be able to play both formations equally well, and we will have tons of tactical flexibility.
  
• Tomas Kalas and his future position have a big impact on the defense pipeline moving forward. If he plays as a right back, he pushes Ivanovic to center back and probably keeps Todd Kane out of the first team. If he plays at CB, it leaves more room for current players/prospects but probably keeps him out of his best position and makes Azpilicueta a long-term starter. I expect he will play on the right and we will buy a starting CB to pair with Luiz in the next 2 years.
  
• LB will be interesting. It doesn't look like Cole is going to re-sign, so Bertrand has this year to prove he can be an elite starter there. If not, I think we will be purchasing a starter and keeping him in his current LB/defensive winger role.
  
• I feel bad for Josh McEachran. I think he really fell behind the last two years and I don't see him catching up. The competition at his position is so tough, and I can't see him pushing past all the current first team players and holding off the prospects right behind him to nail down a starting spot. With that said, I think he will have a long and very good career in the EPL.
  
• I think we will be making fewer purchases of first team starters going forward, but with our talent base I think the ones we do buy will be at big money and will be absolute superstars. I expect we will also continue to buy and develop a lot of 15-18 year old prospects to keep the pipeline full. This should keep us in excellent FFP shape and allow us to get the best players in the world when they come available. For example, with our lack of depth at striker, I fully-expect Cavani/Falcao/Lewandowski or someone similar to be purchased in one of the next two windows, even at the expected prices.
  
• The board and Michael Emenalo have done a phenomenal job building a "new" team. When you look at the projected lineups over the next five years we have some amazing talent, and we also have room to supplement with true superstars. I don't think it is too optimistic to expect lots of silverware; we should be in the running for the EPL title, FA cup and Champions League for a long time to come.
  

Anyway, this is intended to be a global look at the state of the team, both now and over the next few years. This is an incredible community of fans and authors, with so much knowledge about the team, and football in general, that I would love to hear everyone's thoughts. I hope this is helpful and thought provoking, and that it provides a framework to look at the team over the next few seasons.

All in all, it is a great time to be a Chelsea fan. If there is one thing that has been hammered home from writing this post, it is that the team is young, exciting and incredibly talented, and only looks to be getting better. Hopefully we will get the chance to keep celebrating European Championships, as we have everything we need to keep winning!

[zolayes 14,489]

have spent 25minutes reading thro this ,,,,will revisit it again next week ...There is so much to digest but it is an excellent effort to rationalise

our situation and look at the mid to long term prospects ,, Hope it is appreciated

[Muzchap 8,966]

Yup great article - our future looks bright, just hope we have the managerial stability to achieve this...

[Styles 9,790]

There is no point having talented youngsters if they aren't playing competitive football in their formative years. Look at Chalobah now and how impressive he is for Watford. That is the example. The sooner we get them playing football at a good level the better.

[coolhead23 1,146]

Yup great article - our future looks bright, just hope we have the managerial stability to achieve this...

your correct. Managerial Stability is the key for all our future success!