Premier League Betting Log - ManagerXI

[ManagerXI 12]

Swansea went with an unusual lineup with knocks to Sigurdsson and Montero ruling them out with Gomis getting the nod over Bony however Hulls injuries were more important to the team and they were outclassed by Swansea from start to finish and it was important that they got the three points as they will lose important players to the African Cup of Nations and the Asian Cup next month.

Hull 0-1 Swansea

[ManagerXI 12]

Boxing day games are more unpredictable than usual as a lot of teams are unable to maintain their pregame routine and some have to travel large distances on the day of the game instead of the day before so I would recommend keeping your stakes lower than usual and be careful about backing the away team to win.

I have put together some stats that may help you decide on a bet:

*There have been over 2.5 goals scored in 14 of Liverpool's last 15 away games in the Premier League.

*There have been under 2.5 goals scored in Southampton's last 6 away games in the Premier League.

*Everton have scored at least 2 goals in 12 of their last 14 home matches in the Premier League however they have seen under 2.5 goals in 9 of their last 10 matches against Stoke in all competitions.

*Leicester have lost 9 of their last 10 matches in the Premier League / There have been over 2.5 goals scored in 9 of Tottenham's last 10 games in the Premier League.

*There have been over 2.5 goals scored in 13 of Man Utd's last 16 home games in the Premier League / Man Utd have won 7 of their last 8 home matches in the Premier League.

*Hull have failed to score in 7 of their last 9 matches in the Premier League / There have been under 2.5 goals scored in 6 of Sunderland's last 7 games in the Premier League.

*Aston Villa have won just one of the six Premier League meetings with Swansea (W1 D3 L2).

*Arsenal are undefeated in 25 of their last 26 home matches in the Premier League / QPR have lost their last 9 away matches in the Premier League while they have conceded at least 2 goals in 7 of their last 8 away matches in the Premier League.

Whats your best bet?

[zolayes 14,489]

GOING to bet on Sunderland beating Hull

[ManagerXI 12]

Chelsea v Man City Betting Preview:

Top of the table clash and potential title decider if Chelsea win... a bit early in the season to make that assumption but not far off the mark either with Chelsea currently leading the title race by 5 points.

Both teams are missing key players which will have a big impact on this match with Chelsea more than likely happy enough with a draw to maintain their lead over the main title rival and City looking to make up ground but aware of the consequences if they push too hard for the win and leave gaps at the back.

City will be without Yaya Toure who will be a massive loss in the midfield battle while Samir Nasri is expected to be unavailable for another week or two. Mangala is undergoining tests on his groin while new signing Wilfried Bony is still competing in the African Cup Of Nations.

Chelsea have more serious injury concerns with Fabregas unavailable with a hamstring injury and he will not be available to pull the strings in midfield while they are lacking his fantastic link up play which has netted him 15 assists this season and he should break Thierry Henry's record of 20 assists in a season. Main man Diego Costa will also be unavailable after he was confirmed this afternoon as receiving a 3 man ban for stamping on Liverpools Emre Can. Costa has been lethal this season with 17 goals so far and has been involved in 37% of Chelseas league goals this season while Fabregas has been involved in 33%. Drogba is expected to fill in as a lone striker but he is currently a shadow of Costas brilliance and dominance in the opposition box and will not be a match for Kompany.

We can expect Chelsea to set out to contain Man City and try to hit them on the counter mainly through Hazard who will struggle without having the ever present outlet Fabregas offers and Fernando and Fernandinho will cut off the space for him to operate. Both teams are expected to line out with two very defensively minded holding midfielders in Matic and Ramires (Chelsea) and Fernando and Fernandinho will provide the steel for City with Milner doing a job where needed to cut off Oscars space when he switches to the right wing.

I expect this to be a defensive masterclass from Mourinho given his injuries have restricted his options and with City being cautious this will be a very tight game with City being undefeated in their last 6 away games.

Recommended Bet: Man City To Win or Draw (Double Chance) - 1.73 Bet365

[ManagerXI 12]

Result: Chelsea 1-1 Man City

[ManagerXI 12]

Leicester v West Ham Betting Preview

West Ham are coming up against a Leicester side who are woefully out of form and looking to almost certainly be relegated. Leicester have failed to score in their last 3 home matches in the Premier League while only having 1 win in their last 10 home league games. Leicester have scored just three goals in their last nine Premier League games at the King Power Stadium and have gone five hours and 15 minutes since they lasted netted in front of their own fans. On the flip side West Ham are not great for the win away from home and they have struggled to keep clean sheets but they have the better midfield and they will battle Leicester who have gone for an attacking lineup without someone to pull the strings in midfield and control the game where West Ham have Downing to keep Leicester pinned back and punish them on the counter attack supported by Kouyate who returns to his usual midfield position.

The odds are simply too big on West Ham due to their away stats but the matchup is more in favour of West Ham than the bookies are suggesting and there is a decent bit of value available.

Recommended Bet: West Ham To Win Or Draw Double Chance - 1.73 Bet365

[ManagerXI 12]

Unfortunately Leicester nicked an undeserved winner 4 minutes from the end of the game to put up the first loss, it was inevitable and a good example of why bankroll management is as important if not more so than picking value bets.

Newcastle v Tottenham Betting Preview:

Newcastle come into this game with 9 players unavailable through injuries and suspension and they are in a bad run having lost their last 5 Premier League games and they have failed to score in 5 of their last 7 league games and they appeared to have given up on their season in their last game against Liverpool where influential midfielder Sissoko was sent off and is suspended for this game.

Tottenham are not in great form themselves and put in a poor performance last time out against Villa with a makeshift defense struggling to deal with the power and positioning of Benteke but they don't have that same threat to deal with against a toothless Newcastle who are also missing their most creative player and have little to play for mainly due to the poor performances of the teams below them. Dier and Vertonghen return to Tottenhams defence which will make them much harder to break down and a single goal from the in form Harry Kane could settle this.

We will play this a bit safer with the draw no bet market as the season is starting to wind down for both of these teams and their motivation levels are questionable.

Recommended Bet: Tottenham To Win 'Draw No Bet' @ 1.67 Bet365

[ManagerXI 12]

Newcastle 1-3 Tottenham

[ManagerXI 12]

Now that the Premier League season is finished I won't be posting any more tips in this thread. Hopefully a few people made some money from my tips along the way and I will be back next season with a slightly different approach.

Thread Stats:

Strike rate: 89%

Level Stakes Profit: 3.96

Level Stakes ROI: 43.9%

In other words if you bet £100 on each of my tips you would have made a profit of £396.

Have a good summer folks and if you are looking for a bet for the Champions League final I would recommend Barcelona to score exactly 2 or 3 goals @ 2.1 with Ladbrokes.

[ManagerXI 12]

Barcelona 3-1 Juventus.