There are 'what ifs' based on reality and ones that aren't. Your's is statistically less likely on both counts, whereas mine was based on something that we've been living through for the last two and a half years. Doesn't mean it can't happen, but transfers should be a percentage game which is how we've treated them lately. If players like Hazard flop, then they have residual value and a lower initial cost. Players like De Bruyne cost less, but have higher upside. The Cavani price is high and we'd be looking at a loss of close to £30 million if it goes the way of Sheva or Torres.