MUTU

I had done some research myself. Here's a link to a conclusion: Just over a year ago 18% of all Bundesliga players were out injured as opposed to 10% of all Premier League players. I've done these checks every now and then and the results have always put the Bundesliga at the helm of the % of injuries. Also, there's a winter break in Germany at the moment. Your impression is that that causes fewer injuries, but take a look at https://www.sportsgambler.com/team-news/germany-bundesliga/ (keep in mind that squad sizes are generally smaller in Germany, too, as well as the total number of teams [18 instead of 20])

Well, no shit. I'd also much rather keep James than getting CHO, but the board's not so sure about that I fear.

We've offered close to our record amount (if you include the add-ons) to sign your 18 year old unproven lad, yes. At the same time, we're still unsure whether or not we want to exercise our buy clause of €42m (£37.93m) to make James Rodriguez's loan permanent. Imagine that, our board is valuing CHO higher than James Rodriguez at the moment. That's why earlier I said we should pull out. It may look like a low price for you because you want to keep him, but it's taking us to relative extremities when we might end up getting CHO instead of James. At this point in time, I'm not sure whether it's Chelsea's or Bayern's board who want him the most, because Bayern's next bid might be offering you James Rodriguez in exchange for Hudson-Odoi.

Where are you getting these figures from? I trust transfermarkt more than any other source. Here's what you're looking for: https://www.transfermarkt.co.uk/fc-chelsea/alletransfers/verein/631 They claim that this season you spent £180.90m and received £48.24m (net loss of £132.66, much higher than the £75.1m you calculated... perhaps you forgot to include Pulisic?) Then last season it was £234.54m spent, £180.54 received (net loss of £54m, almost identical to the £54m) Anyway these figures are not a good way to calculate profits, because they do NOT include bonus add-ons in transfers (for example, had Chelsea accepted Bayern's latest bid for CHO, it'd show up as £15m even if it ultimately rises to £35m), sign-on fees and agent fees. Some players appear as free transfers, but there is nothing like a free transfer except for when you're 'selling'. For example, I read somewhere Bayern may have spent some €18m sign-on fee for Goretzka, but in the 'net spend' he'd show up as a free transfer, ironically.

But... wouldn't you agree that intensity and frenetic pace should result in more injuries? If anything this goes against my question. How come the Bundesliga clubs consistently have more injuries than Premier League clubs?

Mate, you're underestimating the charm of the Premier League and the spending power of Chelsea. If Bayern and Chelsea ever got into a bidding war over a player, I'd give up before it's even concluded. If you remember, you took Ballack from us for free simply because you afforded to pay him a salary higher than the one we could afford. Of course, times have changed a lot since then, but may I point out that our record purchase is £37.35m while you've signed 6 players of a higher value than that: Shevchenko, Jorginho, Torres, Pulisic, Morata and Kepa. The latter's cost you almost double our record transfer. Really, there are few clubs who've afforded £72m transfers, and Chelsea are one of them. No need to feel like you don't go big anymore.

Out of curiousity, if you think the Bundesliga is easier, doesn't have Stoke, and allows you more energy and breaks, what reasons would you give for Bundesliga clubs consistently having more injuries than Premier League clubs? This is a fact not an opinion. I understand that you play more matches, but you get around that by having a larger squad. For the first half of the season, we had 19 outfield players. Now we have 20 since we've added 18yo Davies. You have 24 outfield players, so you can afford much more rotation. I also understand you don't have a winter break, but that only results with us having a more congested rest of the season. You mentioned more energy to win the UCL... but hear me out. When the referee whistles full time in Liverpool's last match before playing the 1st leg against Bayern, Bayern would still need to play TWO matches.

There's more than just a case for that

You don't? Dude, I know this is a Chelsea forum and it's not my place to do this but seriously this is too much... Chelsea have at least TRIPLE Bayern's amount of professional players on contract, whether playing or out on contract. We super rarely buy players just to loan them out. Gnabry was a big exception. You have 37 players out on loan. We have 1, who's a youth product anyway. You're making it sound like we're able to get players while you aren't.

Agreed, but if German teams decided that one should scratch his balls before submitting a request to sign a player in intra-Bundesliga transfers, it doesn't mean that it would be immoral for Premier League club owners to not scratch their balls the next time they sign the next big thing in the Bundesliga. Personally I already find the FIFA rules overkill. I don't mean to intrude, but I'm going to go out on a limb and say you have a full-time job. Imagine if you apply to work for another company and the latter company would be required to get consent from your existing company in order to conduct a job interview. You'd probably complain about your lack of privacy, wouldn't you? It's the same thing here. At least the FIFA rules only require sending prior notification not also requesting consent.

Finally I understand all this confusion with tapping-up. There are different regulations related to tapping up, and they're described really well at https://www.lawinsport.com/topics/sports/item/tapping-up-in-football-complying-with-domestic-and-international-transfers-rules In a nutshell, the Premier League rules are much more stringent than the FIFA rules. In the former, you need prior written consent of the club under which he is contracted. In the latter, which is the one Bayern are obliged to follow, they simply needed to inform Chelsea that they intend to negotiate with Hudson-Odoi, in writing... Chelsea could have replied with a "don't you even dare" but Bayern could legally negotiate after that. So it might have been considered tapping-up had it been Tottenham making the approach, but since it was Bayern who needed to follow the FIFA rules, nothing's been broken as long as Bayern informed Chelsea in writing about their intentions beforehand (again, no consent would be required).

Again with the tapping up. Look, nobody in their right mind does a tap-up. At least not intentionally, you just need to be really forgetful. All you need to do to avoid being accused of tapping up, as per FIFA regulation 18.3, is to inform the holding club in writing that you intend on starting negotiations. That's all. You don't need approval or a confirmation. When Bayern first decided to start negotiations with CHO, all they needed to do was send a fax, email or letter to Chelsea simply saying "We will be holding negotiations with Callum Hodson-Odoi." And then the negotiations can start while the holding club (Chelsea in this case) has no legal right to stop them. I can't think of a reason why Bayern would be so absent-minded as to forget sending this one-liner fax/email/letter to Chelsea's offices before meeting up with CHO or his agent, because ONLY THEN would it be considered tapping up.

That's why I said Bayern should pull out. He's way too important for you, if anything for the board to keep the fans happy. You don't want to see another of your youth products having success elsewhere. No one does, but you've had more than your fair share of it. It's no wonder you're playing hardball, but the fact is Bayern's offer is still very high for an 18 year old showing promise as much as CHO. It's just that specifically for Chelsea, that's not enough. You (Chelsea i.e.) don't want to sell CHO and buy a similar 18 year old for the same price, simply because it's not the same thing to you. Having said that, Bayern are now having injury problems of their own. Both Ribery (who just tore his hamstring) and Robben (recovering) will miss the first Bundesliga match of 2019. Ribery will be out for a while longer and probably miss out against Liverpool. Therefore, expect one final bid from Bayern today or tomorrow.

Bayern now down to 3 fit wingers, one of which is an 18 year old Canadian who joined the club this month. Guess it has some relevance to CHO's potential transfer.

It's the same market where Jadon Sancho sold for £7m, Alphonso Davies for £9m and PSG signed 25yo Juan Bernat for their XI for £4.5m. Relative to these, the fee offered by Bayern for CHO is astronomical.

If that's what Chelsea really believe (i.e. assuming it's not part of negotiation tactics to squeeze out a better offer), Bayern should pull out ASAP. We've already signed an 18 year old winger who's faster than CHO (and with more experience) just this month. And he's only cost us £9m... I don't understand this obsession our board have with CHO. It's not a bottomless pit and it's more than possible to get talented players from other leagues for less money. I get it, you'd rather have your own homegrown talent, I can understand that, but in no way is Bayern's offer low.

What, the same Arnautovic that cost Stoke City €2.8m?! No wonder Premier League clubs are raiding the Bundesliga. But seriously, with the amount we're offering you for CHO, you still could have bought 5 Sanchos from Man City, or you could get Hazard's brother Thorgan (Tottenham, Everton, Liverpool and Borussia Dortmund are after him), and who used to belong to Chelsea in yesteryear.

A laugh? In the meantime Bayern fans feel they're getting milked. I seriously can't come up with a name of a player signed by Bayern for the first-team squad (i.e. not the reserve team that plays in the 4th division) with less/as much experience as CHO. The risk is great, and as I had previously explained if CHO flops (which, let's face it and be honest, there's quite a decent chance of that happening) we'd struggle to get more than £4m for. We're the club who sold Toni Kroos to Real Madrid for less money than we're offering you for CHO, and the initial fee of £15m is over three times the total fee PSG paid us for Bernat last summer who is in their XI. It's not an insignificant amount of money, so you have to understand why Bayern don't want to carry all of the risks associated with this transfer. The initial fee alone is already over double what Borussia Dortmund paid for Sancho. If it was up to me, Bayern would have pulled out of negotiations a while ago, because clearly Chelsea don't want to sell and Bayern can't afford to just keep upping their bids without limits. We could get an already-developed player for that price, like Thorgan Hazard (Eden's brother) who's available for €42m. In essence, Bayern are definitely not "having a laugh" but have been seeing red for at least the last 2 bids. Whether or not you agree with the evaluation is a different story, but from Bayern's perspective we're offering you the price of an already-developed player and multiple of times more than what Sancho sold for, also from a rich Premier League club to a Bundesliga club.

I don't think my wife would be amused either way hahaha

You meet a girl and told her you loved her and she's perfect for you blah bla blah but along comes her BOYFRIEND and tells you "hey even though she wants you, she's still mine and maybe I want to f**k her, maybe not, for 6 months. Then you can have her after I've finished. Oh, and you need to pay me, a lot of money" Kidding of course, since relationships don't have contracts. You really can't draw parallels.

Assuming he doesn't hold contempt against you, or vice versa, and flop. I wouldn't like a disgruntled player in the team, and is why I wanted Bayern to sell Lewandowski when he wanted to leave, but eventually he claimed he's no longer interested in leaving so that did work out, but it's not always going to be such a success story.

Hence why I said it'd be the same as option 1, which would be Bayern not getting him. I realistically see Bayern getting him in January or at most on a free in 2020 (which I really doubt). I'd be surprised if we get him in summer.

I worry about this as well. Renato Sanches also came with high expectations but didn't really get a fair chance. Then he got loaned out to Swansea where he looked like a real flop. He's looking better each match since he came back but he's still not really getting much playing time. I fear it'd be much of the same for CHO too. I think everyone's had the Sancho success story get to their heads.

Gotcha, I think you'll find your answer here then:

You can rest assured that this is the same as option 1 (i.e. Bayern do not get CHO). Here's why: - If he does well, Bayern would be priced out - If he doesn't, well, why would Bayern still want him? - If he does OKish, Bayern MIGHT come with a fresh bid, but it'd definitely be considerably lower than 39M euro, and you guys will just refuse it. Realistically, I don't see a contract being signed next summer with Bayern an option.