Everything posted by Superblue
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I see similarities with the Alex and Ivanovic deals to be honest bringing players in from weaker leagues but low profile and giving them the chance to adapt and grow as players. To be honest he'd be perfect to buy if Rudiger or Christensen was still here and can sit behind someone for a while and just develop. In our current situation though he would be chucked into the fire immediately which probably wouldn't be ideal but he does seem one of those low risk/high reward possibilities unless Fenerbahce want £25-30m+ for him)
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This highlights why Tuchel still wants to keep Azpi. Even if the likes of Chalobah kicked on again and Colwill had a breakout season, we are completely reliant currently on Silva staying fit to give that experience to the defence. I know we'll add a defender or two to the squad but it comes back to bringing in the right players rather than just simply making a signing. An example may be someone like De Ligt. There's been quite a lot of reports of our interest in him but this summer may prove difficult to prise him out of Juventus. Especially when Chiellini has just left they won't want to need to fill multiple holes. But next summer if he hasn't resigned a new contract De Ligt will only have one year left or he may resign with a lower and more attainable release clause at which point he could well be easier to buy. The club and Tuchel may feel that keeping Azpi another year before buying De Ligt is a better option than letting Azpi go this summer and bringing in an alternative defender. If the club believe De Ligt is better than the alternative then they should wait to make that deal.
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City apparently want £50m for Jesus who also has one year left on his contract. I find it difficult to think they would sell Sterling for less than that when he's been an overall better player during his time there and should still be well in his prime years. The only possibility is if there is less of a market currently for Sterling or he's informed City that he specifically wants to go to Chelsea may help with the negotiating position. I still struggle to see how we'd get a deal done for him under £50m though.
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I think in the case of Spurs they realise there is a potential window of opportunity there for them to win a trophy or two but that window will close on them if they don't do something. They have probably two of the top 5 attackers in the league but at 29 and 30 years old they're not going to be producing the numbers they do forever and they have a top coach but an extremely demanding one known for not laying down roots and foundations for a long time. I believe that Levy and Enic are looking to position Spurs into the most attractive state possible to sell over the next couple of years. I think they'll have been intrigued by the level of interest and the money thrown in the ring to buy Chelsea and they'll fancy the American market being a source to sell to as well. Adding a couple of trophies and improving the overall state of the squad would only help with that. It's very much an 'all in' scenario for them hence why they've made a decision on this additional investment this summer. Hopefully the money and extra transfers still doesn't buy a winning mentality that they've lacked throughout the years.
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Szalai intrigues me because he seems the sort of player that we would be interested and ultimately make a move on. Compared to other areas of the pitch our track record during Roman's era with defenders has been overall pretty damn good and in particular we've had some nice success with what seem to have been either budget buys or very much under the radar signings at the back, with the likes of Azpilicueta, Ivanovic, Alex, Cahill. I see potential similarities with this boy. Granted I've only really seen him in a few games for Hungary and international football is not the most ideal measurement in assessing players but at least in Hungary's case during the World Cup and Nations League they've been competitive against some real top teams that they've probably no real right competing against and they've mostly posed a pretty organised defensive unit which he appears to be playing quite a big part of. When links started with him there was talk of around £15m so I don't think he's someone that would break the bank but he looks a solid player and one that perhaps has another level or two he can go up. It's a tricky situation because if he were bought in he's essentially replacing Rudiger in our current system which are some huge shoes to fill, and we'd all probably want a pretty established player to come in and take that mantle. However there are some players being talked about I'm less keen on and would cost an absolute fortune. He could well be worth a punt in this current market.
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Skriniar seems to be the one reportedly they're most willing to let leave but it seems that they are wanting to sell him to help finance their transfer activity and balance their books this summer. Unless we negotiate a discount into buying him as part of the Lukaku negotiations, I'd be surprised if the Lukaku move suddenly becomes a permanent one as a swap for Skriniar. I had initially mentioned a few days ago a loan swap between Lukaku and Skriniar would have been ideal but I didn't realise his contract is winding down hence why Inter are looking at him being most dispensable I think.
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I don't rate him at all. He'll work hard for the team and manage to find ways to wind up the opposition but I think he's technically limited and we should be aiming for better.
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Us as a fanbase need to get used to the fact that our new ownership will adopt different plans and ideas to how the club should be run in comparison to Roman. Regardless of the purchase price, the investment commitments, etc, Boehly is buying us as a business investment. From what I've seen of his profile I think he'll give every inch of expertise to this club and fall in love with it during his tenure but first and foremost we're an investment opportunity for him and his consortium. It will result in a completely different strategy to the one adopted under Roman. This doesn't necessarily spell the end of good times for the club because I think there are a number of things we do poorly as a club and I think the club can easily be accused of complacency in a number of areas of its operations because we know that we'll always be propped up by Roman. The scouting and recruitment is right towards the top of this list. You mentioned about the attackers, and in general it's not a coincidence that our highest paid players are amongst those with the biggest question marks over their futures (Lukaku, Werner, Kante, Pulisic, Kepa). If we can move the majority of these on or possibly in Kante's situation if he were to resign it's on lower terms, then we can start to get a grip on the wage bill but also be able to implement a leaner ceiling on wages, or more incentivised towards performance. As a club we very well may have to take a step backwards to take steps forwards. Implementing new scouting and recruitment techniques, brand and advertising avenues, stadium redevelopment, etc won't just happen this summer. I've been impressed with just about everything that I've heard from Boehly before and after purchasing the club in interviews, etc. I feel confident in time that we'll get things right and the club will grow but it's not an overnight process.
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The Diego Carlos deal happened whilst Chelsea were still finalising the sale. In turn it took the pressure off Sevilla with regards to selling Kounde who is obviously the more valuable asset to them, and allows them to be more steadfast in their negotiations with us. Also, selling both their starting centre backs, I'm sure they would like to line up at least one, if not both replacements for them before committing too early. This could well go for a lot of deals too. Sometimes you need the dominos to start to fall for a few transfers to start moving. As an example now Bayern are securing Mane, there may be some movement on Lewa or Gnabry leaving, etc. Kounde has also been on international duty and it's only just come out that he needed minor surgery. Imagine the uproar if we'd signed him up immediately only to find out he needed surgery. The club has obviously done some due diligence on this and decided there's too much risk in such an expensive deal before gaining clarity on the surgery and his recovery. These are just a few things based on the bare minimum of information we as fans are given. There is an endless list of variables and complexities to making a transfer deal happen. Boehly only this week has discussed FFP at a financial convention, and its widely known we've pushed the FFP boundaries to the absolute limit to comply over the years so I don't blame the club to take their time to negotiate multi million pound deals to ensure it's the best deal for Chelsea and has minimal knock on effect to what we might be able to afford for other transfers in the window. Please correct me if I'm wrong but I believe the first players come back for pre season around 2nd July and then we travel over to America around 10 days later. I think we may see a couple of transfer movements before pre season starts and then I think there will be a bit more movement that following week before the American tour. It's been widely reported that Tuchel wants to see a number of players that have been out on loan into training first before making decisions on them. This could be critical before the club starts making deals as it could shape our whole transfer window. As an example we're currently being linked with Dumfries for around £35 - 40m. Unless Tuchel plans to play James regularly at RCB then Dumfries is essentially going to be a squad player. There's been a number of reports that Tuchel really liked Dujon Sterling when working with him last summer and only let him go out on loan because he felt it was necessary for him to play regularly after his injury problems and from what I understand, his loan went very well. It's very possible Tuchel brings him back this summer and makes a decision that he's good enough to be backup to James. Suddenly Dumfries isn't needed and we're saving £40m that could be spent elsewhere. If Chelsea explore a deal for someone like Rice this summer then the club and Tuchel will almost certainly have to find alternative solutions in a couple of other positions to ensure there is enough in the budget to do so.
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To be fair to Leipzig they seem to understand their position in the football pyramid and know that their top players will leave at some point but they help to facilitate that in exchange for a bit more loyalty. I think Nkunku and Gvardiol will both end up being tied to new terms that gives the club another year, maybe two in Gvardiol's case, out of them but also means they'll have release clauses which appear more than reasonable on the open market. I'm not sure either will move this summer.
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You have to believe the bit about Boehly discussing with Tuchel whether the relationship is repairable has to be the bit the media got wind of and there were suggestions of Boehly not being on board with Tuchel to let him leave. Of course there will be discussions like this. Boehly isn't a football expert and will currently look at Lukaku as a £100m signing just 12 months ago, he'll want to know what has gone wrong with this transfer and if anything can be fixed before taking what will likely equate to a big hit on the deal. That does not however mean he's going against Tuchel.
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I would agree it's going to be extremely difficult for them to get similar deals. They signed up previously based on potential breakout periods and in CHO's case the general worry of losing him but neither has developed and kicked on to justify. I think time is still on Hudson-Odoi's side and there was a period last season where he was playing regularly and looking a lot more effective but he still must produce a lot more. The problem with dropping their pay is they are very unlikely to do this with still 2 years to run on a current deal. I would be happier with them being signed up to lower base salary but higher performance bonuses to still dangle the carrot to earn what they have been or perhaps even more than they have in the future but it is a tough situation with how the club decides to deal with them.
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The 2024 contract expiry's have to be a priority this summer on top of other obvious pressing needs. I believe there are 5 first team players in this bracket - Kovacic, Mount, Loftus-Cheek, Hudson-Odoi and Pulisic. I wouldn't be against all of them being extended purely on the basis to protect their market values and all are established currently in the first team squad at a time when there could be significant upheaval. Kovacic and Mount in my opinion are absolute musts to be tied down to long term deals and these need absolutely doing this summer. Pulisic needs extending too otherwise we have to look at potentially moving him on this summer to maximise his value if he's unwilling to extend. Hudson-Odoi I would try to extend and Loftus-Cheek seems to be well liked by Tuchel. The problem with these two is that they are both on massive wages comparative to their squad roles, Loftus-Cheek in particular I think would need to take a pay cut to extend. But the way the market is heading 2 years left is heading the way of 12 months left and players seem to be planning much more ahead now to that scenario of taking controls of their careers. We have to plan accordingly.
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Completely agree with this assessment but I think we should also try to exploit the current reputation of the academy not just with kids coming into the very junior ranks but there seem to be more and more players now moving clubs between the 16 - 18 age bracket. I know we recently signed the player from Charlton and we look to be signing a highly rated keeper from Southampton too. It's definitely an area to see if we can cherry pick a few talents from. Like you said on current assessment the current crop of academy talent coming through probably won't be up to Chelsea standard but let's see. Some develop later and I think to get one or two players in from the academy to perform squad roles is almost as big a success as a first choice player coming through as it still fills needs and potentially saves the club a lot of money. I think few felt Chalobah would be capable of stepping into the role he did last season and whilst the debate is still there whether he can develop further into a first team regular, he's definitely a solid and reliable squad option. It'll be interesting to see how Tuchel views a number of players coming back for pre season like Colwill, Gallagher, Ampadu, Broja, Sterling, Gilmour, etc. Some of these may well fulfil roles in Tuchel's eyes just like Chalobah did last summer. With the World Cup mid season and the introduction of 5 subs, we may find a club such as ours may feel more confident with retaining a couple of extra players next season as more options for playing time may be readily available and squad rotation more prevalent. It may open some doors of opportunity for some players.
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Didn't Matt Law just yesterday though report that Boehly is in agreement that Lukaku should move on for the better of the team? Ultimately I think it probably boils down more to frustration that we have a supposed £100m striker who has taken his ball and wants to go back to Italy the moment things have gotten too tough for him, leaving a gaping hole in both the club finances and squad. I remember the second season when Drogba was being booed by the Stamford Bridge faithful for theatrics and perceived lack of effort. When Sheva joined that was supposed to be the writing on the wall for Drog. Instead it was part of the fuse which lit up his Chelsea career and took it to levels only the very top legends of the club belong. I would have actually liked to have seen Lukaku come out at the end of the season or since and said that he was disappointed with how last season went but this Chelsea move isn't ending that way and he'll be clearing the air with Tuchel and coming back next season with renewed motivation. He's shown his true colours and I firmly believe there's no way back for him now even if Tuchel were to move on whilst he's away on loan. He's burnt his bridges with the fans as far as I'm concerned, now it's up to the club to do the best damage control of this deal possible.
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I'm pretty sure I read somewhere that Boehly was pretty dismayed and surprised how many of the squad only have a year or two left on their contracts so I assume this is something that they want to address moving forward. We really need to make a decision on a number of the players with 2 years left on their contracts this summer and see if they will extend otherwise consider selling. This includes Mount, Pulisic, Hudson Odoi.
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I'm pretty certain there has been discussions and likely base agreements in place with players but it's a different situation negotiating with clubs.
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They are both very comparable to the signings of Sheva and Lukaku though because of their respective ages there was never going to be a resale value with them. There have been a lot of players that other clubs have spent fortunes buying who are in the 27-28 year old bracket or older (Hazard as prime example for Madrid) and taking those risks. I don't like that, because the risk is just so bloody extreme if it goes wrong like we're seeing now with Lukaku.
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I know Madrid still have a tendency to like the big name signing but they have changed tact quite a bit in recent seasons. Mbappe would have been an eye watering deal but still has his best years in front of him, it's only really Hazard in recent seasons that they've bought as a bit of a glamour buy and I think the experience of him and Bale recently probably puts them off buying older 'stars'. They've invested a lot of money in younger players like Valverde, Camavinga, Vini who have been able to grow and develop underneath established names and are now primed to take front foot roles in the side. They've also exploited opportunities with players contracts running down or out with the likes of Courtois, Rudiger and Alaba, and very nearly Mbappe.
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Yep, I would probably argue there were three players really at their peak who were anything in or around the "world class" bracket that we've signed and were a success and they were Ashley Cole, Makelele and Ballack. Hazard would fall into the bracket of the absolutely best young players who everybody seemed to desire. Besides that our best players have become top players here. It is always the way I would champion. Anytime we've gone for a 'superstar' glamour signing we've fallen flat on our face. Lukaku is now joining Torres and Sheva in expensive indulgent strikers who we've overpaid for and to and are now stuck trying to deal with for seasons to come. Having said that transfer prices are becoming so ridiculous now that even a basic standard player is £20m, potential is minimum £40m and too many players are being bracketed into a price range that they don't justify.
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When they do regularly report on something it's because its essentially far enough down the road that it will happen. No reliable Arsenal reporters mentioned this Porto player for them, and it's not a deal which would simply be done just today.
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And I would assume selling clubs are aware of this too, making discussions potentially trickier. I would also assume that before the sanctions there was still optimism to get Rudiger signed up. Losing him means two starting centre backs now so targets may have changed as a results of this. Also it appears some players we're linked with such as De Ligt and the Inter defenders, we also have players potentially moving to these clubs which complicates discussions even further.
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To add something further to this, we have a poor track record of not strengthening adequately when on top and in prime positions to do so. And that doesn't have to be superstar signings, it should be strong recruitment to add to a good thing already going here. The last time we arguably did this was bringing in Hazard amongst others after winning the Champions League. Since then the two league title winning campaigns and last summer off the back of the Champions League weren't good enough. I understand the points you make, but there will also be periods whereby clubs will look a lot more attractive to targets then in other times and off the back of big, successful seasons we should have done more work to stay there and build on it. City have been doing this a lot better than we have. Hopefully there will be a much more structured and joined up way of thinking between scouting/recruitment, board and manager moving forward that allows us to build a better structure where players are being bought in as an obvious 'fit' to flourish. It is something that I do actually have a bit more confidence in the new ownership doing in time. Americans are usually a lot more patient in their approach and more likely to let specialists get on with doing the jobs they're paid to do. The failures of the Americans at Arsenal and United are more down to a lack of investment across the club and a disconnect from fans. I know it might not mean much to some but from what I've seen of Boehly coming to games, having his picture taken with fans over recent weeks suggests he 'gets' it unlike other owners. The investment over the next decade that the consortium has committed too should ensure that the club can flourish and grow so long as the money is being invested wisely and correctly.
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Agent's will be paid on contract renewals too, and the likelihood is that some deals will involve agents paid their 'cut' over instalments or the length of a contract in the same way players are paid signing on fees. Those agent fees won't entirely be on Lukaku's transfer.
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I think people need to just be patient with the whole situation. Every transfer has different circumstances and complexities so it's ridiculous to point to one team making a signing and questioning why we haven't. As I've tried to highlight I'd rather get the right signings than any signings. If this takes longer in the window then so be it. If it means "making do" in a couple of positions because those targets won't be available until next summer, then again so be it. We've seen with so many transfers over the years how much a panic buy can set us back. The only true time we can assess our transfer activity this window is at the end of it. We can all speculate and argue about potential interest in players but it's silly to just write this summer off entirely until we know the makeup of the squad at the commencement of next season.