Non-Chelsea Transfer Pub

[Vesper 28,825]

Manchester United offered Arsenal target Adrien Rabiot as Juventus prepare new bid for Paul Pogba

https://metro.co.uk/2020/01/04/manchester-united-offered-arsenal-target-adrien-rabiot-juventus-prepare-new-bid-paul-pogba-11999502/

Juventus are prepared to offer Adrien Rabiot to Manchester United as part of their bid to sign Paul Pogba, according to reports. United re-signed Pogba from Juventus for £89 million in 2016 but the France international now wants to leave Old Trafford. Juventus are in the running to sign Pogba for a second time and the Serie A champions are reportedly confident that an agreement can be reached with United. According to The Sun, Juve believe United would accept a deal worth around £85 million to sell Pogba in the January transfer window. The report claims that Juve value Rabiot, who was signed on a free transfer last summer, at £25m and are ready to offer an additional £60m cash.

snip

 

Rabiot is easily worth £35-40m IMHO, so £60m cash plus him is right on or near the £100m asking price that Manure want now for PP. IF Juve offered us Rabiot for only £25m, I would bite their hand off. He is only 24yo still and is streets ahead of Barkley for instance. I watched a lot of him at PSG, and he can be a force at times. I can see Juve maybe upping the cash to £70m or so just to get it over the line.

 

Rabiot destroyed Messi and Barca in early 2017

 

 

[OhForAGreavsie 5,892]

5 hours ago, DDA said:

Is he really that bad??? He has banged quite a few goals in this season. I heard his attitude was poor at Inter but his ability is definitely there to see.

Thanks DDA.

First, I have to reiterate that I have not watched Gabigol since he returned home. Maybe if I did, I'd completely agree with what you say and the conversation would be over. I confess I'm not really motivated to take that trouble though.

I'm guessing you probably agree that goal counts don't always tell the whole story. Tammy is doing well in that regard yet my opinion, right or wrong, is that he is not the answer for us. I was already at odds with general impressions of Gabigol's ability when I watched him previously so it's not all that surprising to read that people still see him differently to the way I do. While others saw his obvious strengths, I could only really see what looked to me like terminal flaws. If the links get stronger I'll watch him and see if my opinion needs updating. For now, I can't believe we're interested in this bloke.

By the way, the last time I said that was when we were being linked with resigning Nemanja Matic from Benfica. I said I could not believe the club were interested in him at all, and certainly not at the rumoured £25m. Shows how much I knew.

[Hamilton 2,120]

Wow @Vesper thx for the scouting report. He looks promising..

[DDA 9,690]

2 hours ago, OhForAGreavsie said:

Thanks DDA.

First, I have to reiterate that I have not watched Gabigol since he returned home. Maybe if I did, I'd completely agree with what you say and the conversation would be over. I confess I'm not really motivated to take that trouble though.

I'm guessing you probably agree that goal counts don't always tell the whole story. Tammy is doing well in that regard yet my opinion, right or wrong, is that he is not the answer for us. I was already at odds with general impressions of Gabigol's ability when I watched him previously so it's not all that surprising to read that people still see him differently to the way I do. While others saw his obvious strengths, I could only really see what looked to me like terminal flaws. If the links get stronger I'll watch him and see if my opinion needs updating. For now, I can't believe we're interested in this bloke.

By the way, the last time I said that was when we were being linked with resigning Nemanja Matic from Benfica. I said I could not believe the club were interested in him at all, and certainly not at the rumoured £25m. Shows how much I knew.

I think we are in for him out of necessity due to our primary targets not being available until the summer.  It does feel like he could be another Brazillian flop ala Nathan. Let's hope you are wrong and my gut feeling is too.

[NikkiCFC 7,953]

Barbosa? Just bring back Pato 

[Vesper 28,825]

3 minutes ago, NikkiCFC said:

Barbosa? Just bring back Pato 

his lone goal for us (in his debut)

[Fernando 6,463]

On 1/2/2020 at 2:28 PM, nyikolajevics said:

He failed at Inter but you can’t deny his talent, looks like a grown ass man now, not sure wheter he wouldve been a bad signing.

I think coutinho also failed at inter....

Nontheless it would be an interesting signing. 

[shrenshah 186]

Our ban should have held...have a feeling this winter transfer window will do more harm then good...crap players available at exhorbitant prices...

[Vesper 28,825]

1 hour ago, shrenshah said:

Our ban should have held...have a feeling this winter transfer window will do more harm then good...crap players available at exhorbitant prices...

I agree overall but there are 2 no brainers

1. CB Ake whose buyback expires after January (who can play LB as well so surely we can dump BOTH Alonso and Emerson because of no-brainer #2)

2. LB Alex Telles, a steal at his £32m release clause.

Those 2 combined net cost is only £12 to say £17m total in fees if we dump just Alonso and Emerson to Inter and Juve.

Lampard is demanding a CF NOW. Seeing as Demebele looks surely not to be sold in January by Lyon, a £20m or so punt on Chalov or Gabigol is reasonable. We can get £5m for Giroud.

Combined net spend for those 3 is a pisspot £27m to £32m, which goes to ZERO if we also dump the in-demand Bats.

THAT would be smart business at basically no fee cost.

[OneMoSalah 8,778]

I dont know why the media are continually bringing up Alex Telles and linking him to us as if hes a brilliant LB option. He is better in the final third than Alonso and Emerson but just as bad defensively. £32m or not he would be a short term fix that we would need to replace eventually.

I think with the addition of a good left sided CB and as long as Emerson can regains his form, we can perceive until the summer with him and dare I say it Alonso.

Ben Chillwell for me would be a good long term investment in the summer and there is no way he leaves Leicester in January. I dont think theres many better options out there who offer both a good short term and long term investment. Telles may be more efficient in the final third than a lot of the LBs we have looked at but he doesnt offer any immediate improvement defensively which I why I feel he hasnt already moved to a bigger club already. I mean our left side is already poor enough defensively and having to use Azpi there shows that. 

Its much easier to buy higher quality players in the summer. I think we could get a good CF in January though, in the mould of either someone like Moussa Dembele or perhaps stretch the limits and go for Timo Werner. The likes of Sancho and whoever else for the slim chances we have wont happen this month either IMO.

[Vesper 28,825]

CIES Football Observatoryn°279 - 07/01/2019

Values

 

Mbappé valued at €265 million by CIES Football Observatory algorithm

The CIES Football Observatory opens a new exciting decade of football analytics with the exclusive publication of its traditional list of the big-5 league players with the greatest estimated transfer values. At the top three positions of the table are Kylian Mbappé (France and Paris St-Germain), Raheem Sterling (England and Manchester City), as well Mohammed Salah (Egypt and Liverpool). Issue number 279 of the Weekly Post presents the 166 footballers in the big-5 valued at more than €50 million.

Per position, the most expensive players from a transfer value perspective are Alisson Becker for goalkeepers (€87 M), Virgil van Dijk for centre backs (€93 M), Trent Alexander-Arnold for full backs (€110 M), James Maddison for midfielders (€112 M) and Kylian Mbappé for forwards (€265 M). Eleven out of the 20 big-5 league footballers with an estimated value of at least €100 million play for English Premier League clubs.

There are at least two players worth more than €100 M are in each of the remaining big-5 leagues: three in the Liga (Messi, Griezmann and João Felix), two in the Ligue 1 (Mbappé and Neymar), two in the Serie A (Martínez and Lukaku), as well as two in the Bundesliga (Sancho and Werner). More information about the exclusive approach developed by the CIES Football Observatory research team to estimate transfer values on a scientific basis is available in this methodological note.

Top estimated transfer values, big-5, 06/01/2020 (€ million)

About the CIES Football Observatory

The CIES Football Observatory is a research group within the International Centre for Sports Studies (CIES). Created in 2005 by Dr. Raffaele Poli and Dr. Loïc Ravenel, the CIES Football Observatory currently comprises a staff of four full-time permanent researchers who specialise in the statistical analysis of football. Click here for more information.

About the CIES

The International Centre for Sports Studies (CIES) is an independent study centre located in Neuchâtel, Switzerland. It was created in 1995 as a joint venture between the Fédération Internationale de Football Association (FIFA), the University of Neuchâtel, the City and State of Neuchatel. Click here for more information. Click here for more information.

CIES – Centre International d’Étude du Sport
Avenue DuPeyrou 1, 2000 Neuchâtel
Switzerland
Phone +41 32 718 39 00 - Fax +41 32 718 39 01
Email: [email protected]

[Nicco 927]

Mount 94 millions, the list is absolute bollocks.

[Atomiswave 6,072]

What a shit list they have come up with. Rashford at over 134M? Madisson at 112? Jesus at 115? Shit list pulled out of thin air it seems.

[Jase 43,479]

Err...

 

[Vesper 28,825]

7 hours ago, Atomiswave said:

What a shit list they have come up with. Rashford at over 134M? Madisson at 112? Jesus at 115? Shit list pulled out of thin air it seems.

 Methodology

Scientific assessment of football players’ transfer value

Drs Raffaele Poli, Loïc Ravenel and Roger Besson

https://football-observatory.com/IMG/pdf/note01en.pdf

Introduction

Transfer indemnities have steadily grown during the last decades in parallel with the economic development of professional football. This research note presents the scientific approach developed by the CIES Football Observatory to assess from a predictive perspective the transfer value of professional players. When we first investigated this vast field in 2010, we did not think it would be possible to obtain such convincing results. The high explicative power of the econometric approach developed indicates that the degree of rationality of the football transfer market is important. Most of transactions follow a predictable logic, which is possible to model. Within a very dynamic context, the greatest challenge from a predictive standpoint resides in the ability to anticipate the level of inflation of costs. This difficulty is all the more tricky as inflation does not intervene in a linear manner in time or according to market segments. However, as price determinants are stable, this does not recall into question the relevance of the approach developed.

Predicting interest

By speaking with market actors, it has become clear that the economic situation of both the releasing and recruiting clubs has a major influence in determining the transfer price. From a predictive standpoint, even before assessing the transfer value, it is thus necessary to ascertain the type of team that is most likely to have an interest for a given player. This step is not necessary if the actual or potential recruiting team is known. The first step of our approach consists of a multiple linear regression whose dependent variable is the economic level of the recruiting club. The sample used comprises more than 2,491 fee paying transfers having involved big-5 league players that took place between July 2011 and August 2018. Twice as many paid transfers are included in the model developed to assess transfer values at worldwide level. These samples are renewed every six months by taking into account transactions carried out during the last transfer window. After the elimination of some outliers, the statistical model for estimating the most likely economic level of the recruiting club comprises 2,241 transactions. It includes 21 variables referring to the following elements:

• Activity in clubs and national teams 

• Club and national team results 

• Age • Position 

• League of employment 

• Economic level of the releasing club 

To optimise the solidity of the model and its predictive capabilities, only significant variables were retained. The model obtained is very significant as shown by the Fischer F test (p<0.0000). The economic level of the projected recruiting club is correlated by 54% with the level actually observed for transfers included in the sample.

Predicting values

The second step of our approach consists of estimating the transfer value of professional footballers as such. The multiple linear regression developed for this purpose comprises 36 variables referring to the same areas to those used to estimate the economic level of the recruiting club. Moreover, the following further domains were considered:

• Contract duration
• Year of transfer
• Book value
• Loan status
• Nationality
• Economic level of the recruiting club
(estimated if unknown)

After the removal of some outliers, the sample includes 2,249 transactions. All the variables retained have an error probability of less than 1%. This is reflected in a very high statistical
significance and a high level of predictive capability. At big-5 league level, since the first applications of more rudimentary models in 2013, the correlation between values estimated and fees paid has constantly been above 75%. The model built is again very significant as indicated by the Fischer F test (p<0.0000). The estimated values correlate strongly with the actual transfer fees. The adjusted coefficient of determination reaches 86%.

Conclusion

The pioneering approach developed by the CIES Football Observatory in the field of the scientific evaluation of transfer values has a wide range of uses. Market actors avail of it for:

(1) Transfer negotiations In a highly speculative context where fake information is often leaked by clubs, agents and the various media involved, it is very useful to base oneself on an objective value with which to define an opening price. The projection of future values can also be beneficial, notably when it comes to the negotiation of add-ons.

(2) Contractual negotiations Thanks to the algorithm developed, it is possible to envisage likely scenarios on the future transfer values of players. This approach is particularly useful in defining the level of salary offered to a player without involving excessive risk or in determining the optimum length of a new contract.

(3) Transfer litigation Our algorithm is highly suited to situations of litigation over transfer amounts. For example, in fixing an indemnity fee in case of a unilateral breach of contract on a player’s part, when former clubs have a right to a percentage fee for players sold on or exchanged, as well as when footballers are entitled to a share of the fee for their own transfer.

(4) Credit negotiations The objective and independent estimate of transfer values also proves useful when negotiating credits. Indeed, the transfer value of the squad constitutes a reliable indicator of the ability of a club to honour their engagements. This is not necessarily the case when credit worthiness is based on players’ book value. A model assessing the fee paying transfer’s probability was also developed.

(5) Taking out insurance With the increase in transfer costs, it is becoming more and more worthwhile to take out insurance policies covering the possibility of the loss of value of a player, notably through injury. Thanks to our algorithm, we can monitor precisely the current and future values of players under contract. 

(6) Club sale or purchase
For most of the teams worldwide, players are the major asset. An objective and neutral estimate of the overall transfer value of squad members is a key criterion to be considered
when it comes to negotiate the buying or selling of a club. Aside from any applications by market actors, our approach and independence allows us to bring more transparency and objectivity to
transfer operations. Indeed, up until the present, no other organisation is capable of judging the validity of transactions on a robust and credible scientific basis. The growing recognition by actors in the game, the media and the public at large confirms the merits and interest of our approach.

[Vesper 28,825]

Biggest Summer 2019 EPL Transfer/Loan Busts so far

 

No Order (sorted by team)

 

 

Spuds (so poor, a lot of quid for bad returns so far)

Tanguy Ndombélé (Mourinho is already publicly bashing him, this is not going to end well)

Giovani Lo Celso (I think still may turn out oki, but then again, maybe not)

Ryan Sessegnon

 

Arse (very bad, mitigated by Ceballos only being a loan and Pepe finally scoring a little, Luiz has been horrific)

David Luiz

Nicolas Pépé

Dani Ceballos

 

Everton (disastrous, by far the worst window atm, some due to injury and some due to simply buying dogshit players like the last 3 on the list)

Moise Kean (Ancelotti might be able to sort him)

Jean-Philippe Gbamin (due to injury, I think we will turn out to be quite good still)

André Gomes (due to injury, was playing quite well, another victim of that utter goon Aurier)

Alex Iwobi

Djibril Sidibé

Fabian Delph

 

Shitty (Pep and his expensive and shit fullbacks, lolol, now watch the cunt pip us on Chilwell!)

João Cancelo

Angeliño

 

Newcastle

Joelinton (every big money CF who came into the EPL in summer 2020 has been a bust)

 

West Ham (2 big misses, not good as they cost a lot)

Sébastien Haller

Pablo Fornals

 

Wolves

Patrick Cutrone

Jesús Vallejo (sent back early to RM on his loan to wolves)

 

Villa

Wesley (due to injury)

 

Burnley

Drinkwater (dogshit as usual, and injured to boot)

 

Bournemouth

Arnaut Danjuma

Lloyd Kelly (due to injury, when healthy he might possible be a decent LB)

 

Southampton

Che Adams (horrid, yet another overrated English garbage player, ZERO goals in 17 games so far for £15m)

[Special Juan 27,429]

Ashley Young to Inter....fucking hell

[Vesper 28,825]

Matthijs De Ligt's Italian dream goes cold:

He was a hero at Ajax but now the £70m defender has been benched by Maurizio Sarri as Juventus stars Cristiano Ronaldo and Gianluigi Buffon try to cheer him up at training... but Barcelona could be an escape route

Matthijs De Ligt has struggled to earn consistent game time at Juventus

He appears to have lost favour with Maurizio Sarri, who prefers Merih Demiral

Star Juve players like Cristiano Ronaldo and Gianluigi Buffon try to cheer him up

But Barcelona could come calling again and De Ligt may well be interested  

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/football/article-7864287/De-Ligts-Italian-dream-goes-cold-benched-Sarri-Ronaldo-tries-cheer-up.html

 

I have to say, after watching Merih Demiral in 7 games,

he is a badass CB

no wonder Leicester want him so badly

Turkey are fucking loaded now there and at RB for years to come

with

and he takes no shit