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CHOULO19

The European Leagues & Competitions Thread V2

Started by CHOULO19,

16,489 posts in this topic

Lazio keeping the pressure on. As I previously mentioned, they are Juve's biggest threat.

 

 

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Just now, Vesper said:

Samir Handanovic probably would have stopped that winning goal though

Padelli is a big drop off

Padelli is seriously rubbish. 

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On ‎15‎-‎02‎-‎2020 at 9:02 PM, Vesper said:

Liverpool have now qualified for next year's CL

it is February 15th, roflmaooooooooooooooooo

The state of epl, its so so overrated. Seria A looks much better money for value atm.

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42 minutes ago, NikkiCFC said:

they can go FUCK themselves

the head choppers can go abu dhabi a bag of goat dicks for all I care

Image result for Mansour bin Zayed Al Nahyan goatImage result for Mansour bin Zayed Al Nahyan goat

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1 hour ago, NikkiCFC said:

So now they are threatning other Clubs cuz they got it up the arse huh? You are fucking guilty as fuck, deal with it you scumbags.

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59 minutes ago, Vesper said:

they can go FUCK themselves

the head choppers can go abu dhabi a bag of goat dicks for all I care

Image result for Mansour bin Zayed Al Nahyan goatImage result for Mansour bin Zayed Al Nahyan goat

I wouldn't mind Juve, Bayern and PSG going down with them tbh. 

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2 minutes ago, NikkiCFC said:

I wouldn't mind Juve, Bayern and PSG going down with them tbh. 

the first 2, along with RM, Barca and Manure, are untouchable

those are the 5 clubs that FFP was put into place to protect

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Cox and Worville: What’s going wrong at Atletico Madrid?

https://theathletic.com/1608038/2020/02/17/cox-and-worville-atletico-madrid-simeone-liverpool/

Simeone-Atletico-e1581876967741-1024x684.jpg

In this first collaboration between our resident tactics expert Michael Cox and our new football analytics writer Tom Worville, they analyse the fortunes of Liverpool’s Champions League opponents

Jurgen Klopp’s first meeting with Diego Simeone has been a long time coming.

Around a decade ago, it was impossible to escape the similarities between the two — they were up-and-coming, larger-than-life managers who had inspired their sides, Borussia Dortmund and Atletico Madrid, to new heights.

Klopp led Dortmund to two Bundesliga titles, then was defeated by old rivals Bayern Munich in the Champions League final. Simeone took Atletico to La Liga glory, then was defeated by old rivals Real Madrid in the Champions League final. Twice.

Klopp and Simeone exuded the same energy. They couldn’t sign ready-made superstars like their domestic rivals — and the superstars they created often jumped ship — but they compensated with intensity and organisation. Both prided themselves on their sides’ tactical ability without possession; Klopp’s teams by gegenpressing and creating quick turnovers, Simeone’s by sitting deeper, pressing laterally and breaking directly.

Earlier this season, when Spanish radio station Cadena Sur asked Simeone for a manager which he admired, his answer was immediate: “Jurgen Klopp. No doubt. He’s had to lose things and also has won beautiful things but always with the same style. I see him as close to his players.”

After the draw in December pitted Atleti against Liverpool, Klopp was genuinely enthused. “It will be a tough game, between two teams who are used to playing intense football. Different styles and slightly different organisation, of course, but both are ready for intensity,” he grinned.

And therefore, the Champions League last-16 meeting between Klopp’s Liverpool and Simeone’s Atletico should be something special: high-tempo, energetic, evenly-contested.

It should be — but it might not be.

Over the last 18 months, these sides have gone in opposite directions. Klopp is having the best campaign of his career, with Liverpool essentially wrapping up their first Premier League title by Christmas. Atletico, on the other hand, have slumped. For the first time, Simeone’s position is being questioned and potential successors are being discussed. At one stage, it felt like Atleti had superseded Real to become Madrid’s No 1 side. Now, they’re merely the third-best side in the capital, even behind little Getafe, whose manager Jose Bordalas is considered the perfect replacement for Simeone.

Now, the old caricature of these sides — battlers, fighters, players who can run and run and run — no longer applies to either, in very different ways.

For Liverpool, that’s because it is not the most relevant aspect of their play. They’re also excellent in almost every aspect of the game, from combination play to counter-attacking to set pieces.

For Atleti, it doesn’t feel relevant either. They are suffering from injuries and appear physically exhausted. The old commitment and intensity is long gone and the embarrassing recent Copa del Rey exit at the hands of third-division Leonesa, where Atleti sat back when 1-0 up and were eventually defeated 2-1, was the lowest point of Simeone’s reign.

What’s gone wrong for Atleti?

The constant demand for intensity has seemingly left them exhausted and various players have spent long periods out this season. Up front, Alvaro Morata has been struggling with a groin problem, Joao Felix has missed the last three games and Diego Costa has been out since November. All three have a chance of facing Liverpool but none will be at 100 per cent. Hector Herrera and Jose Gimenez have a chance of returning from injury in time for this week’s game but Kieran Trippier is out of the tie.

Among so many injury problems, Simeone’s Atletico have never looked less cohesive. Only two players have played more than 80 per cent of La Liga minutes — one is goalkeeper Jan Oblak and the other is Saul Niguez, and even he’s hardly been a steady presence, considering he’s been fielded on the right, on the left, in the centre of midfield and at left-back this season.

Make no mistake: this isn’t Simeone keeping his players fresh by rotating — it’s Simeone struggling to field a consistent side because his players have been dropping like flies. For comparison, six Liverpool players have played more than 80 per cent of league minutes.

The busy treatment room may also be a factor in Atletico’s reduced pressing game. While there’s no perfect number to measure pressing, Opta’s “high turnovers” represents a decent proxy. Domestically, Simeone’s men are averaging 4.1 high turnovers a game this season, their lowest in recent memory.

Worville5-941x1024.jpeg

In terms of Atletico’s poor results, on paper the issue is obvious. Atleti still boast a tremendous defensive record, having conceded just 17 goals from 24 matches this season — only Real have conceded fewer. But Simeone’s side have scored just 25 goals. Sure, Simeone’s approach has always been based upon a solid defence rather than a spectacular attack but these are nevertheless extremely concerning numbers.

Many have focused upon the departure of Antoine Griezmann, Atleti’s top goalscorer in each of the last five campaigns, but it’s worth giving Morata some degree of credit for generating a comparable proportion of Atleti’s shots. The former Chelsea striker is responsible for 30 per cent of Atleti’s xG total in La Liga this season (Griezmann weighed in with 29 per cent in 2018-19.)

graphic.jpeg

Even in terms of shot-conversion rate, Morata has performed well — Griezmann scored with 11 per cent of his open-play shots last season, whereas Morata is on 14 per cent this season. Take away the three penalties Griezmann scored and there’s minimal difference between their goalscoring output.

Atleti’s underlying statistics, meanwhile, make for particularly interesting reading. In terms of their expected goals (xG) numbers in attack, Atletico are miles behind the level you would expect. From the positions of their shots so far this season, you would expect them to have 12 more goals in La Liga alone. The below graph demonstrates the extent to which this is unusual — across Europe’s major five leagues only SPAL, propping up the Serie A table, are comparable in terms of underperforming in comparison to their underlying numbers.

Worville2-941x1024.jpeg

This isn’t the fault of one player alone — all Atletico’s attackers have fewer goals than expected based upon their chances — Morata, Costa, Felix and Angel Correa should all have scored more.

This simply hasn’t been an issue for Atleti in recent years. As this graph demonstrates, they’re actually recording their third-highest xG numbers in recent years. Having always overperformed their xG by roughly the same margin, suddenly they’re miles behind their usual rate. This is more likely to be a blip than a fundamental flaw — for Simeone’s sake, let’s hope the board see it the same way.

Worville6-941x1024.jpeg

And if underperforming their xG numbers is Atleti’s only problem — or, at least, by far their main problem — then you suspect that no-one will sympathise with Simeone more than Klopp.

In his final campaign with Borussia Dortmund, Klopp’s side had a similar issue. Their “real” numbers in terms of goals were wildly different from their xG numbers. At the midway point of 2014-15, Klopp’s side found themselves — remarkably — in second-last place in the Bundesliga, whereas the xG figures suggested they could have reasonably expected to be only a point off second. There was a difference of 16 goals between their goal difference and their xG difference.

Statistical analysts used these numbers to confidently predict that, despite being in the relegation zone midway through the season, Dortmund would be absolutely fine. They were. In the second half of the campaign, they recorded over twice as many points as in the first half (31 compared to 15) and rose to seventh place.

Atleti’s malaise hasn’t been so stark — largely because their underperformance has been solely in terms of attacking numbers, rather than defensive numbers. They’re not struggling at the bottom of the table like Klopp’s Dortmund were, merely struggling to confirm their Champions League spot for next season.

It remains to be seen whether Atleti’s actual goal figures catch up with their xG figures and whether Simeone can convince Atleti’s board, supporters and players that this is merely a blip. Klopp, when in a comparable situation, at a similar stage of his spell with Dortmund, decided it was best to walk away. There’s little sign of Simeone making a similar decision, however, and Atletico’s underlying numbers suggest that an improvement could be imminent.

Based upon their results — and, in particular, their poor goalscoring numbers — so far this season, Atleti start as serious underdogs. Simeone, however, won’t mind his side being underestimated.

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Just look at PSG and Dortmunds attacking threat and compare that to ours 😂😂

It's cringeworthy.

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Goal for AM......please murder these cunts for the whole world. I would love Simone here, he is a Chels style manager. Give him a good squad and he can play both defensive and attacking footy. His best AM side was very much Chelsea-like.

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