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20 minutes ago, OneMoSalah said:

Not big wages? His agent is notorious for getting his clients big money and he was at PSG, coming through the ranks and now on loan to Real Madrid. I refuse to believe hes would be on less than 100k a week at PSG considering he has been there since he was a youth player and they will have renewed him a few times....suppose not the biggest wage but again, its hardly as if its minimal.

Edit: ok few websites reckon 80-90k currently but again, when these players move they very rarely take a wage drop, they usually want more money. I would expect the same.

Saying that, he really isnt that great a GK either, not the worst, not the best. There is a reason as to why he is still behind Mandanda in the NT back up GK role. I suppose if there weren’t any better options and the fee wasn’t extravagant, yeah sure take him but he wouldnt even make the top 10 candidates for me. Reason why we bought Kepa before him too.

also @King Kante just because the players only been contacted 2 weeks or a month or whatever before a transfer it doesn’t mean he is not vetted by the club for some time. Or what would be the point in having a scouting system?

Plus for 71m your going to want to be doubly and triply sure that the guy will be worth the outlay so its not as if they panicked and picked his name out a hat...

Chelsea had been watching Pulisic long before we made our interest clear, same with Kevin de Bruyne, the Dutch scouting fella was quoted saying he had been following him since he was 15 and also Andre Schurrle. So I would severely doubt that any shortcuts were taken with Kepa who the club knew was more than likely going to cost his buyout clause. It would be idiotic if they hadnt been aware of him or watched him live or on video as well as looking through all the various modern day data they can use to help analyse players as well as take into account their characters, their behaviours etc. 

I agree, but the problem is Mo, it doesn't appear any of what you outline is the case. I say this because: 

1) His stats where poor/not great at Athletic.

2) He has a £18m buy out in the Jan before we brought him and at that time he was on sub-€10k. If we were tracking/watching with intent why not buy then? We do loan to buys all the time. This also goes double when your current No.1 has been stalling on an extension for 18+ months by that point. 

3) He had only played 56 professional games when we had brought him so any analysis was based on a small data set. 

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22 minutes ago, King Kante said:

I agree, but the problem is Mo, it doesn't appear any of what you outline is the case. I say this because: 

1) His stats where poor/not great at Athletic.

2) He has a £18m buy out in the Jan before we brought him and at that time he was on sub-€10k. If we were tracking/watching with intent why not buy then? We do loan to buys all the time. This also goes double when your current No.1 has been stalling on an extension for 18+ months by that point. 

3) He had only played 56 professional games when we had brought him so any analysis was based on a small data set. 

He was poised to go to Madrid for 20 or 25m euros in January. I think the club likely wanted that to go through so Courtois would maybe stay. Then he renewed at Bilbao when they pulled out so higher release clause, wages etc as with most new deals. Plus you would think or hope we were likely always trying to persuade Tibo anyway but always probably had targets set on Oblak and Alisson first then the likes of inferior more attainable options such as Kepa and Areola if he did leave. Which is fair enough. Dont put all your eggs in one basket, smart move. 

Also what does it matter how many games he’s got? Plus thats only his first team games at Bilbao. Not including his B team spells or the various loan moves before which the standard may not be the same but its experience and its definitely professional games. 

Even then if thats how you want to look at it, okay, Alisson had only played 49 games in European football before Liverpool signed him. Oblak had played 34 games before Benfica bought him. De Gea played 57 games with Atletico before Man United bought him. Courtois had 41 games at Genk before we bought him.

The games played means very little in regard to all of these guys because people acknowledged their talent regardless. So any data gathered maybe it would be a small data set but again I doubt they’d discount the loan moves or B team games or u21s, u19s games or games in the Brazilian league for Alisson too because these things all can give off more data to be used and can help build a more accurate profile of a player. 

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15 minutes ago, OneMoSalah said:

He was poised to go to Madrid for 20 or 25m euros in January. I think the club likely wanted that to go through so Courtois would maybe stay. Then he renewed at Bilbao when they pulled out so higher release clause, wages etc as with most new deals. Plus you would think or hope we were likely always trying to persuade Tibo anyway but always probably had targets set on Oblak and Alisson first then the likes of inferior more attainable options such as Kepa and Areola if he did leave. Which is fair enough. Dont put all your eggs in one basket, smart move. 

Also what does it matter how many games he’s got? Plus thats only his first team games at Bilbao. Not including his B team spells or the various loan moves before which the standard may not be the same but its experience and its definitely professional games. 

Even then if thats how you want to look at it, okay, Alisson had only played 49 games in European football before Liverpool signed him. Oblak had played 34 games before Benfica bought him. De Gea played 57 games with Atletico before Man United bought him. Courtois had 41 games at Genk before we bought him.

The games played means very little in regard to all of these guys because people acknowledged their talent regardless. So any data gathered maybe it would be a small data set but again I doubt they’d discount the loan moves or B team games or u21s, u19s games or games in the Brazilian league for Alisson too because these things all can give off more data to be used and can help build a more accurate profile of a player. 

Again don't disagree but there is still the problem that his stats where not good. The other GK's had great stats. De Gea is currently also bad but that looks more like a player with the yips than a player that is simply poor. If it wasn't for him the five years after Fergie left, gods knows how bad it could've got for Utd. 

As for the Madrid move, if that falls through then surely you just jump in if you rate him so high, especially if six months down the line you spunk £72m on him and your club runs a buy to loan portfolio.

Further, Tibo, Oblak, Alisson (from Brazil to Roma) all went for reasonable/low fees and wages. None went for world records and made one of the top five paid GK's in the world. 

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6 hours ago, King Kante said:

Again don't disagree but there is still the problem that his stats where not good. The other GK's had great stats. De Gea is currently also bad but that looks more like a player with the yips than a player that is simply poor. If it wasn't for him the five years after Fergie left, gods knows how bad it could've got for Utd. 

As for the Madrid move, if that falls through then surely you just jump in if you rate him so high, especially if six months down the line you spunk £72m on him and your club runs a buy to loan portfolio.

Further, Tibo, Oblak, Alisson (from Brazil to Roma) all went for reasonable/low fees and wages. None went for world records and made one of the top five paid GK's in the world. 

Forget the stats, they can be extremely misleading in many aspects. Like Southamptons the amount of goals conceded at Southampton when van Dijk was there prior to leaving in January or the amount of assists Reece has this season when he should have so many more due to poor finishing or the amount of assists Jorginho doesn't have or whatever. Be exactly the same with GKs and even then he didnt have bad stats prior to moving, for a team like Bilbao which arent exactly high flying or hugely successful they were probably as good as theyd get all things considering.

There is a clear reason why he was highly regarded throughout Europe.... or you going to tell me that these clubs following him were all wrong? I mean I had seen him play in a few La Liga games and he was decent enough, wouldnt have said he would ever be world class but solid enough to have a good career at a top level club. Plenty to work on to hit another few levels like all GKs around that age 22/23, still a few wee errors here and there but doubt many would of seen him coming here doing well last season and in his second season play so poorly at times, even more so after the year he just had previously where he has gained recognition in Spain and ousted David de Gea to the Spain NT #1 spot.

Also de Gea the yips? Hes been making huge mistakes constantly in the last 24 months mate. Huge mistakes. But he was world class beforehand so its different to Kepa? So whats not to say Kepa had a really good first season last year (which he did) building on a promising campaign in Spain the year beforehand and now has had the yips in phases this season? Their situations are basically the same except one guy played in Spain for the bulk of the last 5 years and one guy in Manchester. Maybe to different levels but I don’t see how its hugely different because even then, Kepa has probably made less mistakes in the last 2 seasons than De Gea has. I wont deny there have been maybe 10 games this season where be has been poor for some of the goals and he was rightfully dropped earlier in the season looking back on it and even agree to an extent that replacing him could be a good idea if he doesn't recover but again, if he remains and gets back to last seasons level, I wont complain as it will save us signing another player and allow us to focus on the defence which needs a more vocal CB and a LB.

What part of he renewed after the move fell through aren’t you getting? Like it was just over a week, I am sure Real pulled the plug just after the second week of January and he renewed on the 20/21/22nd of January. Why would we trigger a 20m release clause for a GK when we had every intention of trying to keep Tibo? Or if he wasn’t the number one or two choice originally if he did go - Alisson and Oblak were. Do you think a club would just sign a 20m or 71m GK on the off chance Courtois would be sold and they didn’t feel they could get one of those other two who are undoubtedly world class? Again the clubs stance was hard regarding Tibo and if he had returned to train, he wouldnt of had been able to strongarm a sale as much so I dont get this whole panic side of it, they obviously did whatever they do and had watched him before before green lighting the buy, which again he signed before Madrid even presented Courtois to their fans so he was brought in prior to letting Tibo go so this panic buy shit is beginning to sound even dafter to me. I mean even stupider for me, if you want to bad mouth the club for this why not mention why didn’t we pursue Alisson or Oblak sooner in the January? Oh wait clubs don’t necessarily sell their better players mid season. Unless in exceptional circumstances such as release clauses being met or loaned back (ie. Pulisic). It also clearly indicates that we were keen on trying to keep Courtois and why not, he is a WC Gk. it would be daft to consider that we couldnt sway him otherwise, like we did with Eden that same summer.

Yes none of them went for record fees but if you look at Bilbao’s recruitment and their stance on selling players you’ll see why they only ever sell players for their release clauses. Javi Martinez to Bayern - release clause. Clubs wanted Muniain in the past but wouldn’t pay the release clause. Same with Inaki Williams the last few seasons, been interest but they want the release clause. It wouldn’t of mattered if it was 15m, 20m, 55m or 71m, we would of had to pay it.

I get the fee is a bit big for a GK of his quality but you act as if we had a choice, or as if Sarri also didnt give his blessing after Pepe Reina, his GK at Napoli, said to him he would be a good signing after having worked with him with the Spain set up also. The club knew exactly what they were buying, the potential number 1 GK for the next 7 years at least, so that would indicate to me they knew maybe their be a little hiccup here and there (but not to this extent) but theyd expect him to grow in the role as we all did after last season. Just hasnt happened and I would think the club will probably push for Oblak but if we dont get him, which in my eyes is more than likely, I think he will still be here either in the 11 or on the bench. 

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3 hours ago, Tomo said:

Yeah DDG past is irrelevant when discussing his present. He's everybit as finished at the top level as Torres post 2010 was.

The longer United persist with him the better.

I don't think they want to persist with him but they are stuck with ddg. His salary make him impossible to move 

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11 hours ago, King Kante said:

Kepa is on record as saying that he only got contacted by Chelsea about two weeks prior to the transfer. That tells me he wasn't fully planned for. When big transfers happen they are usually ongoing for months so the player can prepare themselves to move country which involves new house/new schools for children/new cars etc. 

The rumour was Oblak turned us down due to us only going to him so late and he didn't want to go through the upheaval (although this is only a rumour.) 

Further, Kepa in January 18 had an £18m buyout, so he was clearly not a target for us or we thought of him that highly at that point as otherwise we should've done one of our buy to loan specials. Further, at that point he was apparently on under €10k a week. 

Everything about the Kepa transfer points to a panic buy and a particularly insane one at that. 

I don't think it was oblak. We wanted Allison 

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11 minutes ago, communicate said:

I don't think it was oblak. We wanted Allison 

The club tried to go for Alisson earlier in the summer but when he joined the dippers the plan seemed to be keeping Courtois for the last season of his contract and delay the GK signing till 2019 (which in hindsight would've been really bad because of the transfer ban). After Tibo went on a strike and refused to return to training the club first went after Oblak and was willing to pay his clause (£89M at the time) but he turned it down. Only then the club went and bought Kepa.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/football/article-6052121/Jan-Oblak-rejected-Chelsea-club-met-89m-release-clause.html

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6 hours ago, OneMoSalah said:

Forget the stats, they can be extremely misleading in many aspects. Like Southamptons the amount of goals conceded at Southampton when van Dijk was there prior to leaving in January or the amount of assists Reece has this season when he should have so many more due to poor finishing or the amount of assists Jorginho doesn't have or whatever. Be exactly the same with GKs and even then he didnt have bad stats prior to moving, for a team like Bilbao which arent exactly high flying or hugely successful they were probably as good as theyd get all things considering.

There is a clear reason why he was highly regarded throughout Europe.... or you going to tell me that these clubs following him were all wrong? I mean I had seen him play in a few La Liga games and he was decent enough, wouldnt have said he would ever be world class but solid enough to have a good career at a top level club. Plenty to work on to hit another few levels like all GKs around that age 22/23, still a few wee errors here and there but doubt many would of seen him coming here doing well last season and in his second season play so poorly at times, even more so after the year he just had previously where he has gained recognition in Spain and ousted David de Gea to the Spain NT #1 spot.

Also de Gea the yips? Hes been making huge mistakes constantly in the last 24 months mate. Huge mistakes. But he was world class beforehand so its different to Kepa? So whats not to say Kepa had a really good first season last year (which he did) building on a promising campaign in Spain the year beforehand and now has had the yips in phases this season? Their situations are basically the same except one guy played in Spain for the bulk of the last 5 years and one guy in Manchester. Maybe to different levels but I don’t see how its hugely different because even then, Kepa has probably made less mistakes in the last 2 seasons than De Gea has. I wont deny there have been maybe 10 games this season where be has been poor for some of the goals and he was rightfully dropped earlier in the season looking back on it and even agree to an extent that replacing him could be a good idea if he doesn't recover but again, if he remains and gets back to last seasons level, I wont complain as it will save us signing another player and allow us to focus on the defence which needs a more vocal CB and a LB.

What part of he renewed after the move fell through aren’t you getting? Like it was just over a week, I am sure Real pulled the plug just after the second week of January and he renewed on the 20/21/22nd of January. Why would we trigger a 20m release clause for a GK when we had every intention of trying to keep Tibo? Or if he wasn’t the number one or two choice originally if he did go - Alisson and Oblak were. Do you think a club would just sign a 20m or 71m GK on the off chance Courtois would be sold and they didn’t feel they could get one of those other two who are undoubtedly world class? Again the clubs stance was hard regarding Tibo and if he had returned to train, he wouldnt of had been able to strongarm a sale as much so I dont get this whole panic side of it, they obviously did whatever they do and had watched him before before green lighting the buy, which again he signed before Madrid even presented Courtois to their fans so he was brought in prior to letting Tibo go so this panic buy shit is beginning to sound even dafter to me. I mean even stupider for me, if you want to bad mouth the club for this why not mention why didn’t we pursue Alisson or Oblak sooner in the January? Oh wait clubs don’t necessarily sell their better players mid season. Unless in exceptional circumstances such as release clauses being met or loaned back (ie. Pulisic). It also clearly indicates that we were keen on trying to keep Courtois and why not, he is a WC Gk. it would be daft to consider that we couldnt sway him otherwise, like we did with Eden that same summer.

Yes none of them went for record fees but if you look at Bilbao’s recruitment and their stance on selling players you’ll see why they only ever sell players for their release clauses. Javi Martinez to Bayern - release clause. Clubs wanted Muniain in the past but wouldn’t pay the release clause. Same with Inaki Williams the last few seasons, been interest but they want the release clause. It wouldn’t of mattered if it was 15m, 20m, 55m or 71m, we would of had to pay it.

I get the fee is a bit big for a GK of his quality but you act as if we had a choice, or as if Sarri also didnt give his blessing after Pepe Reina, his GK at Napoli, said to him he would be a good signing after having worked with him with the Spain set up also. The club knew exactly what they were buying, the potential number 1 GK for the next 7 years at least, so that would indicate to me they knew maybe their be a little hiccup here and there (but not to this extent) but theyd expect him to grow in the role as we all did after last season. Just hasnt happened and I would think the club will probably push for Oblak but if we dont get him, which in my eyes is more than likely, I think he will still be here either in the 11 or on the bench. 

I would disagree a GK's stats are like a CB's stats when it comes to analysis on goals conceded. A GK is more like a CF in that few clean sheets should be seen as few goals. Obviously a GK, cannot record clean sheets by himself but he is also at the mercy of his team mates just like a CF. If a centre forward has poor supply he has fewer goals. So, yeah the clean sheet stats count. Further, go have a look at Kepa's Opta shot map. Honestly, it is even worse than I thought it would be. Essentially he only saves the ball if it is down the middle, either side and you have an a massive chance to score. 

As for other areas of Kepa. Looking back at his play for Athletic, there were the glaring errors that we still see today; 

Inexplicably swinging his arms before attempting a shot - this is a massive massive massive red flag. A GK should not do this as it means they are more than likely going to miss the ball as they do not have the time to get across. 

Incredibly low save % of one v one's in comparison to other GK's because of his poor positioning/decision making

Getting rooted to the spot for long range shots

Getting too square to save cut backs and/or getting himself caught in no mans land. 

Making silly errors

This is all there. As I said with the other GK's there was much better evidence that they were great GK's. Kepa may have had some flashy saves (like his one against Fulham, where everyone gets slightly excited because they can then watch some gifs) but he was also error prone. 

As for the Madrid fall through. If you think Kepa is potentially a £70m+ GK and you have a business model that involves buy to loan then surely you go for it at £21m. This is a club that in 2011 spend £7m on Tibo (which was actually quite a lot for a GK then) to only loan him out for three years. So, yes. If the club rated Kepa so high and where tracking him to a level you would expect, he should've been signed then. It is clear they club where not tracking him then as otherwise it is just another level of insanity. 

You say they were hoping Tibo would re-sign but when exactly were they expecting him to do so? By that point it had been over 18 months of him refusing. How much more rejection did they need? No one was expecting the club to buy a Oblak/Alisson mid-season. However, what you do is you sound them out and make sure you get your ducks lined up so they know of your interest and they can plan to move their families. All the noise from Oblaks side was that we left it to late to contact him i.e. went for him at the same sort of time we went for Kepa, that indicates panic as you do not go to a GK like Oblak two weeks before a season and try to do a world record deal. 

As for De Gea, I think you misunderstand what the yips is. The yips can mean the end of a career as the players head has completely gone, it doesn't just mean he is in poor form but will 100% recover. Utd's contract extension was silly. However, De Gea did justify it to a certain extent with his performances. I am not saying he will recover, I am saying he has the yips which means he could be done but it is due to it being a mental thing rather than a ability thing. 

Oh well, if Pepe Reina said to Sarri Kepa was a good GK, what other choice did we have than to buy him for £72m and on £170k a week for 7 years? Quick, we had better also ask him which CB's he rates as well. Don't want to miss out on any other nuggets of wisdom he has. 

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Does Kepa’s unwanted record mean Caballero should play against Wolves?

https://theathletic.com/1946013/2020/07/23/chelsea-kepa-arrizabalaga-caballero-lampard-wolves/

chelsea-kepa-arrizabalaga-caballero-lampard-wolves.jpg

Kepa Arrizabalaga broke one record when he joined Chelsea from Athletic Bilbao for £71.6 million. Now he is on the verge of another.

When the club made him the world’s most expensive goalkeeper in 2018, they would have hoped Kepa would end his debut season challenging landmarks for clean sheets or saves.

Instead, after conceding five times against champions Liverpool last night, he sits just one behind Dmitri Kharine for the most goals conceded in a Premier League campaign by a Chelsea goalkeeper.

Unlike Kepa, Kharine cost a mere £400,000 when he arrived from CSKA Moscow in 1992, and he was part of a much weaker Chelsea side. In 1993-94 — when clubs still played 42 matches per season in England’s top division — the Russian let in 48 goals in 40 appearances, an average of 1.2 per game.

Kepa’s goals conceded per game (1.42) is already worse than Kharine’s and he has been beaten 47 times this season in just 33 matches. Should the Spain international let in two against Wolves in Sunday’s league finale, he will overtake Kharine as the most porous goalie in Chelsea’s Premier League history.

The 25-year-old was trending on Twitter during and after Wednesday’s contest at Anfield. Within a few hours of the final whistle, nearly 150,000 tweets had been posted about him. Few, if any, were complimentary.

It should be noted that he wasn’t helped by his careless team-mates or their ruthlessly efficient opponents during the 90 minutes. However, for a world-class goalkeeper, such excuses would only be required a few times a year. Kepa seems to find himself in this situation on an almost weekly basis.

PREM-TABLE-23-7-20.jpg

Whether it be from a set piece or from long-range, opposition players can sense the vulnerability, the lack of belief. Chelsea’s greatest goalkeeper, Petr Cech, who is now employed as their technical and performance advisor, was watching from the stands. This month, Kepa’s predecessor, Thibaut Courtois, secured a La Liga title with Real Madrid. One can’t help but think Liverpool would have found either of those two harder to beat.

Liverpool’s five goals on the night came from just seven shots on target. Their expected goals (xG) was 1.27, Chelsea’s was 2.58. Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain’s shot for the fifth goal looked savable, with Kepa only able to deflect the close-range finish into the net.

When an Andy Robertson free kick floated past him at a catchable height just before the end, there were audible cries of “Kepa! Kepa!” from Chelsea players as he made no attempt to claim it. Fortunately for him, the ball fell to Virgil van Dijk at the back post and he scuffed the chance over the bar.

As on the 11 other occasions where Chelsea have lost a league game this season, singling out Kepa is not fair. It wasn’t the only reason they got beaten at Anfield, but his form is an ongoing issue that won’t go away and could undo 12 months of head coach Frank Lampard’s work.

Chelsea are one point against Wolves away from qualifying for next season’s Champions League via a top-four finish and Lampard has big decisions to make on who will start a game that is crucial for the club’s long-term ambitions.

When asked by The Athletic if he was worried about Kepa’s confidence going into Sunday’s match at Stamford Bridge, Lampard replied: “I wouldn’t talk about individuals in a game where we’ve conceded those goals. Some were real quality finishes, particularly the free-kick (from Trent Alexander-Arnold). There were some collective and individual errors for them. We know that if we make mistakes against a side like Liverpool, then this is what can happen.

“But there were a lot of good things in the game. I certainly don’t want to get in an individual conversation about players.”

Despite Lampard’s straight bat, the prospect of dropping Kepa will surely come into his mind. No one should blame Kepa if he is short of belief right now. Chelsea’s goals against column stands at 54. It is the 13th worst in the division, below teams such as Brighton & Hove Albion and Crystal Palace. They are only seven better off than Watford, who are in the bottom three with a game to go.

On top of that, Kepa must be aware that other goalkeepers have been linked to big-money moves to Chelsea on an almost-daily basis. Jan Oblak, Dean Henderson and Andre Onana are just three of the names they are rumoured to be interested in.

None of them can help Chelsea over the next few weeks, however. Lampard has turned to back-up Willy Caballero 11 times in all competitions this season, including the 3-1 victory over Manchester United in the FA Cup semi-final last weekend.

The soon to be 39-year-old Argentinian is not perfect by any means. His four Premier League appearances in February didn’t provide a miracle cure, let alone any clean sheets. Caballero conceded seven goals in those games, yet he will be in a better frame of mind after Sunday’s outing at Wembley.

It is not an easy call for Lampard to make. Wolves, who need to win to guarantee Europa League qualification, are a side capable of exposing Chelsea’s weaknesses at the back.

Perhaps memories of the way Kepa performed against Liverpool in the FA Cup four months ago, when he did keep them out, will give him one more chance.

It is some gamble — not exactly a position you’d expect to be in after spending £71.6 million on somebody.

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24 minutes ago, DDA said:

The length of Kepas arms is a huge problem 🦖

Their length, strength and the speed he is able to move them. But he has so many problem areas, physical, technical and mental that I don’t think he will ever be a world class goalie. Even if he somehow recovers his confidence. It amazes me how he even managed to become a professional athlete with such remarkably average physical characteristics, middling talent and football intelligence. If you go to the nearby Highschool, pick a random lanky teen and train him  reasonably well to be a goalkeeper for 10years, he would probably do just as good/bad as Kepa. I can’t find any personal dislike for him tho. Even after the shit he pulled with Sarri subbing him off which was an unprecedented act. He just seems a guy in the wrong job. Should have been a much better ornithologist 

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