The English Football Thread

[Vesper 27,266]

Friday April 3 2020 Football Nerd

The Premier League season's most 'unfair' results By Daniel Zeqiri Many results are produced by variance and good fortune CREDIT: GETTY IMAGES Throughout football's coronavirus hiatus, we remain committed to providing a weekly newsletter of football facts, analysis and retrospectives. If there is a topic you are keen for us to cover please email [email protected]. Above all, stay safe. The thought of voiding the Premier League season repels football's authorities and most supporters for a variety of reasons. One is that football matches are a series of never-to-be-repeated discrete events, and their outcomes owe much to fortune and who enjoys the rub of the green on the day. Football's low-scoring nature means teams can dominate a significant portion of the 90 minutes but find themselves on the wrong side of the result. The tension and jeopardy created by this dynamic is what keeps us all interested. In the past decade, metrics such as 'expected goals' have gone mainstream and allowed even the casual fan to quantitatively value which team created the better chances. Despite its clunky name, expected goals is just a numerical expression of concepts that have been discussed in pubs and cafes for decades. How many times have you heard someone say "eight or nine times out of ten we win that"? Or recall Ron Atkinson's riposte to Sky Sports' Richard Keys, when the defeated Coventry City manager pointed out that Southampton goalkeeper Dave Beasant had won the man of the match award. Familiar sentiments all football fans understand - expected goals just puts flesh on the bone. Below are the 10 most 'unfair' results of this Premier League season, based on the discrepancy between the actual scoreline and the xG tally. They can be divided up into two categories: ever so slightly flattering thrashings, or an unlikely reverse of the outcome the balance of the game should have produced.   CREDIT: OPTA It is not surprising to see Leicester's 9-0 and 5-0 routs against Southampton and Newcastle or Manchester City's 6-1 win at Aston Villa feature on the list. Scoring five goals or more in 90 minutes is practically impossible without some xG over-performance - Bayern Munich scoring seven at Tottenham from an xG total of 1.45 the perfect example. This does not mean the result of these games was unjust however, as the xG indicates the victors were certainly the better side. More influential for league table are those games where the outcome of the game flips. Tottenham's 2-0 win over Manchester City was the best example of floodlight robbery, achieved with an xG match-up of 0.31 to 2.86. Burnley have also kept up their reputation for squeezing out wins against the odds, with home wins against Southampton and Crystal Palace achieved while creating fewer than 1.0 xG per game. This is not to suggest some teams have been lucky, but rather demonstrate the number of results determined by variance. That is why studying a bigger sample of matches offers a better idea of each team's level.

[Fulham Broadway 16,381]

They just have to finish the season now. The non leagues are done and some European leagues are following. The PL will have to pay back 750 million on TV rights if not, so thats the incentive to finish the season in some format. 

Give the mickey mousers the title and it will forever have an asterix next to it.. Then we will sing  "You never won the league.. You never wont the League. Etc etc

[Tomo 21,680]

6 hours ago, Fulham Broadway said:

They just have to finish the season now. The non leagues are done and some European leagues are following. The PL will have to pay back 750 million on TV rights if not, so thats the incentive to finish the season in some format. 

Give the mickey mousers the title and it will forever have an asterix next to it.. Then we will sing  "You never won the league.. You never wont the League. Etc etc

I don't think there's any chance we will void the season, far too many compliications. Forget Liverpool for a minute, out of everyone who will suffer they will the least, there's clubs who's long term future rely on this seasons finish, imagine if this was 2003? A void would have destroyed us financially.

Sheffield United is another example, they're on course for CL football, with it they have a money to truly establish themselves as a top PL side, with a voided season they're technically back to being a newly promoted team and will probably disappear into irrelevance again  (not a chance their current squad with a few journeyman signings minus Henderson keep up this years pace). It would be the biggest footballing injustice if Spurs and Arsenal get default entry into the CL at the expense of Leicester and Sheffield. Not to mention the free money Norwich and the likes will get.

I don't know when or how, but this season has to be finished somehow.

[Fulham Broadway 16,381]

15 minutes ago, Tomo said:

I don't think there's any chance we will void the season, far too many compliications. Forget Liverpool for a minute, out of everyone who will suffer they will the least, there's clubs who's long term future rely on this seasons finish, imagine if this was 2003? A void would have destroyed us financially.

Sheffield United is another example, they're on course for CL football, with it they have a money to truly establish themselves as a top PL side, with a voided season they're technically back to being a newly promoted team and will probably disappear into irrelevance again  (not a chance their current squad with a few journeyman signings minus Henderson keep up this years pace). It would be the biggest footballing injustice if Spurs and Arsenal get default entry into the CL at the expense of Leicester and Sheffield. Not to mention the free money Norwich and the likes will get.

I don't know when or how, but this season has to be finished somehow.

Agree Tomo - it has to be done and dusted - that TV revenue and players 30% wage pool needs to filter down, and quickly  -otherwise a conservative estimate suggests 40-50 clubs going bankrupt in the lower divisions.

[Tomo 21,680]

9 minutes ago, Fulham Broadway said:

Agree Tomo - it has to be done and dusted - that TV revenue and players 30% wage pool needs to filter down, and quickly  -otherwise a conservative estimate suggests 40-50 clubs going bankrupt in the lower divisions.

My bad i misread your initial post.

[Fulham Broadway 16,381]

2 minutes ago, Tomo said:

My bad i misread your initial post.

haha sorry  just read my initial post and agree it is hard to gather what I am on about. Still a bit hung over. I think the PL will see sense, (and because of the TV revenue which pays their executives exorbitant dividends) and they will finish it behind closed doors.

[Laylabelle 9,293]

I dont see how they cant. Liverpool deserve their title and teams deserve the chance to get into the Champions League. If voided might not happen for them next year. It just needs to be done in the right way and safety. Some of the proposed plans are daft and probably from no one official...youd hope not anyway!

[Jase 43,479]

2 hours ago, Fulham Broadway said:

haha sorry  just read my initial post and agree it is hard to gather what I am on about. Still a bit hung over. I think the PL will see sense, (and because of the TV revenue which pays their executives exorbitant dividends) and they will finish it behind closed doors.

They should do what AVB suggested and change the seasons to a calendar year to tie in with the 2022 World Cup and then go back to August-May after that. 

[Fulham Broadway 16,381]

48 minutes ago, Jason said:

They should do what AVB suggested and change the seasons to a calendar year to tie in with the 2022 World Cup and then go back to August-May after that. 

Sounds like a plan - its probably difficult to get all the TV  companies contracts rewritten, lawyers, other sporting events clashing with TV schedules on side etc but it could be done. 

[Jase 43,479]

33 minutes ago, Fulham Broadway said:

Sounds like a plan - its probably difficult to get all the TV  companies contracts rewritten, lawyers, other sporting events clashing with TV schedules on side etc but it could be done. 

Yeah but it's arguably better than declaring the season null and void (even if that might benefit us in terms of Champions League qualification), with clubs set to lose tens/hundreds of millions if we go down that route. 

[Fulham Broadway 16,381]

1 minute ago, Jason said:

Yeah but it's arguably better than declaring the season null and void (even if that might benefit us in terms of Champions League qualification), with clubs set to lose tens/hundreds of millions if we go down that route. 

Worse than that, like I said so many clubs will go to the wall. Don't think anyone wants that scenario

[Jase 43,479]

Just now, Fulham Broadway said:

Worse than that, like I said so many clubs will go to the wall. Don't think anyone wants that scenario

Yup, it is an option that will satisfy none of the important parties involved. 

[Jase 43,479]

Wonder what our club have decided to do with the non-playing staff etc.

[Laylabelle 9,293]

Theyve kept quiet about it so far.

[Special Juan 27,090]

1 hour ago, Jason said:

Wonder what our club have decided to do with the non-playing staff etc.

But they will never walk alone.

[NikkiCFC 7,559]

https://www.twitch.tv/38entertainment

Gilmour vs James (UTD) live on FIFA. 

[Jase 43,479]

 

[Fulham Broadway 16,381]

Clubs have been told to prepare for a mid-June comeback, which will see players increase their training load from May.

(Reuters)