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Alternate Premier League Table 15-16


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This thread is for the Alternative Premier League Table, for the season 2015-2016.

This is a continuation of my previous APLT thread which ran over the last (half of the) season and can be found here:

http://forum.talkchelsea.net/topic/19866-the-alternate-premier-league/

Some of you may have followed my thread the previous season, others may be new to this. For the newies, or those who need a reminder of the model, the APLT is all about a different way to look at the table, and tries to take into account that 3 points won against let's say for example Man City away, are more precious than three points won against let's say Watford at home. It makes an assumption that in order to win the league title, a team needs to win 90 points for the season. This can be achieved by winning all home matches and the seven easiest away matches (the three promoted teams and the 14th-17th ranked teams from the previous season) and draw the 12 remaining away matches. If a team does so, a team plays to par, and gets par results, similar to the game of golf. As in golf, par will be achieved more often than not, but sometimes points are dropped or gained in relation to par.

The fixture list below for the top seven teams from last season indicates the hardest matches which are all par 1s (marked in colour), with the remaining fixtures all par 3s.

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During the 15-16 season, I will try to update this thread as soon and as often as possible and plot the results in relation to par for all the teams featured on a graph (an example of last season’s completed graph is below). If a team plays to par, the line on the graph will be horizontal, whereas dropped points will lead to a negative gradient and gained points a positive gradient.

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The green depreciating lines reflect the 90 point line and the 71 point line (a drop of 0.5 points per game, dropping to 19 points below par by game 38) to illustrate a 90 point and a 71 point season, a reasonable estimation of the points needed to win the premier league (90 points) or to achieve a top four finish and qualify for the champions league (71 points). Any team with ambitions to finish top four needs to be above the lower green line by the end of the season.

If you'd like to know more about how it works, I suggest reading the first post of my previous thread, which can be found here:

http://forum.talkchelsea.net/topic/19866-the-alternate-premier-league/

On another message board, where they also keep an eye on the APLT, there's an excellent post from a user called Nessy76 on RAWK. It's well worth reading if you are new to this, and illustrates how the APLT works. I never thought a Scouser could write something that actually made sense, but he has apparantly. He explains it by describing last season, as three games had been played:

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We have difficult opening fixtures: three par one games in the course of five games (although West Brom shouldn't be that hard, we do have a terrible record at the Hawthorns). This actually means (according to APLT) that if we start our league campaign with 9 out of 15 points, we're still performing to par and actually on title winning course! Manchester City and Liverpool have equally hard opening fixtures (3 difficult games in 5), I wouldn't be surprised to see Arsenal, and to a lesser extent Tottenham or Man United on top of the regular table after 5 games. If we can get 9 or more points (preferably more) from our opening 5 games, we should be good.

And finally, the league is back! Can't wait till tomorrow!!! :blue scalf:

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Here's what happened to the better teams after the first matchday:

27y3g9z.jpg

Only 1 team played to par (United) and two teams even performed better, and won difficult away games where they actually could've dropped two points and remain on course for a 90 point season.

We performed sub-par, against Swansea we should always try to get the 3 points. But, considering the circumstances, I'm glad we didn't lose as we were ten men up and Swansea were playing very well. And it could've been worse, just look at Arsenal who go down three in the APLT!

Here's what the graph looks like at the moment, but it'll need some more time for all the teams to become visible, some teams are "covering" other teams. We're on the same course as Southampton, and City are on the same course as Liverpool.

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And I've said it before, I'll be happy with 9 points out of 15 for our first five games. That still puts us on par and on title-winning form. So I wouldn't be too shocked or disappointed if Mourinho goes for a draw at the Etihad. Although 2/6 looks like a horrible start, if we get a 9/15 from then on we'll recover.

But a win at the Etihad would be great for morale! And some people on here need a boost in morale! Sheesh the pessimistic stuff I've read the past few days!

Come on fellow blues, there's an entire season ahead of us and an away draw at Swansea isn't that bad.

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  • 2 weeks later...

And here's what the APLT looks like after two games:

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And the progress lines:

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City is still hiding behind Liverpool. We're on -3, and so are Spurs.

I think we all felt the same after the Etihad game, and all that should be said about it has been said the last few day. Our team, players, manager and board have been criticized and discussed on here, and rightly so. They're now reacting with the purchases of Baba and Pedro, and hopefully they turn out formidable players and not just panic buys.

The season is still long boys, nothing lost. And I'll say it again:

If we can get 9 or more points (preferably more) from our opening 5 games, we should be good.

I'll be happy with 9 points out of 15 for our first five games. That still puts us on par and on title-winning form. So I wouldn't be too shocked or disappointed if Mourinho goes for a draw at the Etihad. Although 2/6 looks like a horrible start, if we get a 9/15 from then on we'll recover.

Win the next three games and we'll have ten points. Although we shouldn't underestimate West Brom away, definitely not.

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Another match-day finished and I'm back, with more APLT!

And I'd like to point out we're third, only behind City and Liverpool in the table. Why do I want to point that out? Because it shows the beauty of the APLT: we're below United in the real PL table, but above them in the APLT. All this means is, although they've gathered more points than us this season (hence they're higher in the real table), we've had more diffcult games than them, and these things counteract eachother. And we're not level, no, we're higher ergo performing better. According to the APLT, we're outperforming Arsenal as well, although they have the same amount of points in the real table as we do.

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Southampton are going down real fast! Spurs aren't exactly doing well either. And only two teams are performing better than par (City and Liverpool) which means they're doing better than title winning form which is playing to par (not better than par). We're only one point below par, which is not too bad. It's the last time I'll say this, but before the season started I would've been happy with 9/15 points from our first five games. That would put us on the par line. If we win the next two, we'll actually be above the par line (+1, as we'll have 10/15)! Let's do that, Blues!!! :blue scalf:

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Hello everyone, I'm back, with more APLT!

Interesting week, but unfortunatly definitely not the best one for us. Like many, I would've liked to see things differently but it is how it is, onwards and hopefully up we go!

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The good news? We're only one point behind Arsenal and United (although both teams have three points more in the real table - meaning we've had more difficult games than them and had we had five points out of our first 12 we would've performed as good as their 7 out of 12) and, more interestingly, we're three points above (yes, you read that correctly, above) Southampton although they're above us in the real table with a point more. Basically, they've just had a terrible start to their (easy) start of the season and I'm glad for them: they have now picked up three points and played their first to-par game.

The bad news? City is eight points ahead of us, both in the APLT and in the real table, meaning we've had an equally difficult four games, and they've outscored us by eight points. Their start to the season is starting to look more and more like ours last season, getting an early and well-above-par start. And they're now the only team (out of the teams that we're following) that are above the 90 points line and thus performing better than title winning form, with Liverpool losing at home to West Ham and going down three points.

Also interesting to note is how Southampton have only performed to par for the first time this season after 4 games, while Spurs have performed sub-par every game so far this season. So while our form is very bad, cheer up a little, we're not Tottenham! I hope Willian is enjoying this.

We're not the only team performing badly though; usually there are four teams above the 71 point line, and those four teams make top four and qualify for CL-football. As it stands right now, there are only two teams above that line.

Hopefully we can make amends soon. We have a par 1 game coming up, away to Goodison, so a win would see us go up two points in the APLT and back above that line!

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  • 3 weeks later...

I'm not sure I want to see the table after gameweek 5 :(

I fully understand! :(

I didn't want to update straight away because of our horrible form and then, from Tuesday on I went to London to watch our midweek game, so I know I'm late but here's the update for week 5 of the APLT.

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City keep rising which is something I don't like seeing. I never wish upon an injury of a rival player, but Aguero's, Silva's and Kompany's injuries might see them drop some points which would be beneficial for the competitiveness of the league although it is still early and nothing's lost as of yet. Tottenham have played their first time to par and Southampton have done so for the second time in a row, hopefully they can play to par now for a while. The APLT says we are still above Spurs and Soton, even though both teams have two more points in the real table, meaning we've had more difficult opponents so far and are (even with lesser points) performing better. Liverpool have dropped from their great above-par early-season form and Arsenal seem to have steadied and played to par twice in a row now, hopefully we can end that this weekend :dunce:

Our PL form has been bad, but I have hope. I hope the boys can pick up form soon rather than late and start winning some points. I was in the bridge Wednesday and the atmosphere was ecstatic! Best moment of the game was when we at Matthew Harding started singing "Stand up for the Special One" and to see the East Stand rise and everybody singing and clapping. Second time I took my girlfriend to Stamford Bridge/Matthew Harding, second time the atmosphere got here to cry haha!

Keep the blue flag flying high! :blue scalf:

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Jeez that might be more depressing than the actual table!

I beg to differ, we're only two points behind Arsenal and United in the APLT while we're 6 behind them in the real table! And we're above Soton and Spurs in the APLT while we're behind them in the real table. All that says is that although we've had a bad start, we've also had a difficult start. And in fact, we've performed better (considering the opponents) than Soton and Spurs although they've got more points.

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I beg to differ, we're only two points behind Arsenal and United in the APLT while we're 6 behind them in the real table! And we're above Soton and Spurs in the APLT while we're behind them in the real table. All that says is that although we've had a bad start, we've also had a difficult start. And in fact, we've performed better (considering the opponents) than Soton and Spurs although they've got more points.

Why can't you leave me wallow in misery?! :readthemessage::angry:

:P

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I'll start doing these on Mondays soon enough, but the last couple of days it has been busy. But anyways, I'm back, with more APLT!

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We've won again, this time against Arsenal, and come three points closer to top spot! Yay!

Best thing this week is seeing City lose a par 3 game and the continuation of Liverpool's downfall. I don't know how much longer Brendan will be at Anfield.

We've won a home game, and even though it was a game against Arsenal, we should aim to win all home games and thus the game was par 3. For Arsenal however, the game was a difficult away game and hence par 1, meaning the drop 1 point in the APLT and we play to par, moving one point closer to them. United has now overtook Liverpool and is second in the APLT, as they are in the real table. Liverpool and Arsenal are level and just one point above is.

We've got a few par three games in a row now, we should aim to win them all and remain level on the line we're at right now. Newcastle away has been an achilles heel but they've never been so awful as they are right now so I hope we can just get the win there.

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Hello everyone, here's what the APLT looks like.

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We've gone down two since we drew a game where we should've got three points. Considering it was St-James Park and we usually travel back from Newcastle pointless, I'll take the point. What I don't like taking however, is our tally or position in the table after 7 games. What I do like however, is seeing City go down another point in the APLT after losing a par 1 game for them, at White Hart Lane. Spurs on the other hand, played a very difficult game par 3 game (par 3 because at home), which they won and thus they stayed on par. Arsenal and Liverpool have both performed to par as well, but are, as are we, below the 71 point line and thus below expectations for a top 4 side. Some top teams, and I hope that includes us, should move north of that line soon.

Cheers, and hoping for a good game against Porto tonight!

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  • 2 months later...
  • 2 weeks later...

I'm sorry I've been absent for a such a long while but I'm back now, with a huge update to the APLT. I've still lurked and roamed these forums from time to time but have been less present (not because of our bad results - I've still been watching every game - but because of the negativity around here at the time).

Before I upload the pictures, I'll say I removed Soton (they were going down anyways) and I added Leicester who are, as we all know, performing very well. Anyways, here's the update:

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The bad news? We're six below Liverpool in the real table, but 8 in the APLT. All that says is that we've had an easier first 17 games and those easier games for us (or harder games for them) give them a two point advantage. I suggest you read the first post of this thread if you're new to the APLT.

Anyways, while we've been steadily going down (and fast as well, unfortunately), there's also some good news: we've played well against Sunderland (let's hope that continues, but it's way too early to tell) and in the last 5 games United and Liverpool have been going down a lot faster than we have!

The only other difference I see to the real table is that City is still second, performing better than Arsenal. It's true, Arsenal have had easier fixtures than City so far. The next 5 games should change that, with City having 5 par 3 games and Arsenal having only 2, playing Liverpool, Stoke en Soton away.

Let's hope we can perform slightly better than par (I'm afraid we won't though) and still catch that 71 point line!

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