The Alternate Premier League

[Hostedenis 556]

Hello everyone,

I'd thought I'd introduce something new to the forum, and I hope it catches on. What is it? It's a new way to look at the table in the premier league. Why? Because we can, because it's fun, because we're members of a football forum so like me you probably invest a lot of time in discussing football online, and, most of all, because I think the current premier league football table doesn't tell the whole story.

Is the current table wrong? No, of course not. It lists the amount of points a team has gathered, and at the end of the season, the team with the most points wins. Easy no? Yes. But the table is deceiving. Team A could have played ten difficult fixtures (away games, or more capable opponents) and be three points behind Team B, who have had ten easier fixtures. Is Team A then really doing worse then team B? It's difficult, with just looking at the table, to know if a team has played harder or easier fixtures.

So I have been, for some time now, looking into other ways of listing a team's standing in the premier league. There are many different ways to just the normal premier league table, such as the Cann table and many others. But there's one I found and liked and have been regularly checking for the last three months or so. I don't know if it has an official name, but I found it online on a football blog and the blogger calls it the 'alternate premier league table'. I've also found the same system of calculating the 'alternate premier league table' on RAWK, but I don't know if the blogger or the poster on RAWK was the first and maybe they're even the same person.

Anyway, I wanted to make a thread here on this forum to discuss the ALTERNATE PREMIER LEAGUE TABLE. Since I do not want to copy the images and text or just provide a link to the blog or RAWK, (mostly because anything a scouser does, I can do better ) I've made my own excel file with calculations and a graph earlier this evening and I'll update this topic after each matchday if enough people are interested and follow this thread. I will however copy some older images from previous seasons from RAWK to explain to you guys how it works.

So how does it work?

First of all, the APLT makes an assumption. It assumes you need 90 points to win the league. And it assumes you'll make top four (i.e. secure Champions League football) if you gather 71 points over a season. Of course, a team may win the league with less than 90 points, or two teams may end up having more than 90 points thus making the initial assumption wrong, but this doesn't matter. The assumption is just a guideline to compare yourself to, and if two team are about to finish above the 90 point line this is shown in the APLT as well. Similar for the 71 point line. But these lines are useful for reference.

So, going by our assumption, a team needs 90 points to win the league. This can be done in many ways, for example by winning 30 random games and losing the other 8. But that wouldn't be a good benchmark, just selecting 30 random games, because not all opponents are equally capable and only half of the games are played at home. So instead, the APLT suggest that to get your 90 points, you need to win all your 19 home games, and draw your most difficult 12 away games, winning the other 7 as well. That means that if you lose a home game, you'll drop 3 points, draw a home game, drop 2 points from the 90 points line. If you lose or draw a difficult away game, you'll drop 1 or 0 points respectively from the 90 points line. It's not that hard, see?

So, to recapitulate; 90 points for the season can be achieved by winning all home matches and the seven "easiest" away matches (the three promoted teams and the 14th-17th ranked teams from the previous season) and draw the 12 remaining away matches.

So basically, there are two types of games: 26 games were we must get the three points (19+7=26) and 12 games were we must try to get one point. Similar to golf, I'll refer to these games as par 3 and par 1 games, were we must play on par to remain on the 90 points line (read: remain on course for the title) and if we perform worse, we'll drop below the line, if we perform better, we'll go up in the APLT.

Is this system perfect? No it's not. Food for discussion, but fun to follow.

So, what have I done so far? I've made an excel worksheet that I'll update as the season progresses. It's a pity I didn't start this back in August, but next season (if there's enough interest) I'll start from matchday one. So here's the excel sheet with the seven teams I made, currently listing the most interesting teams to follow. Each team has it's colour (for the graph) and I also highlighted a teams par 1 games in that team's colour to make them stand out. The seven teams in the graph are the usual top five, also Liverpool, and this season Southampton although previous season Everton would be more interesting to follow. You could put all twenty teams in the graph, but that'd be more work, more chaotic, and those teams won't win the title or CL spots anyway:



As you can see in the above excel sheet, Chelsea has already had most of it's difficult away fixtures (the par 1 games) as has Southampton. We actually only have two more par 1 games (more difficult games) to go. On the other hand, both the Manchester teams have had mainly par three games, or easier fixtures, and will have more difficult games in the remaining part of the season. In the regular table we're 5 points clear of City, but in the APLT, it's more, because we've had a more difficult first half of the season. And it is exactly that, that is shown in the APLT. For example, after the Tottenham game, in the APLT we were 10 points clear of City, even though in the regular table we had an equal amount of points. All those 10 points mean, is that we've performed better then them, because we have an equal amount of points but from more difficult games. It also means that in the second half of the season, they have more par 1 games, meaning that if they win a par 1 they'll go up 2 points in the APLT, and we'll have more par 3 games, meaning that if we win, we stay put. But it's a nice representation of the premier league table to consider.

To give you some clear examples, here are the APLTs from previous seasons, which I've copied from RAWK because I have only just tonight made my own excel file, so I only have 14/15.

First I'll show last season:



It shows how we were actually going for the title on matchday 29, close to the end, but than lost it because we lost two par three games... It also shows Liverpool losing at home (so dropping three points - par 3 game) and we winning at Anfield (par 1 game - so going up 2) which cost Liverpool the title and made City win it. It also shows City on top at the end of the season, meaning they win the title, but below the 90 points line. Meaning they performed worse than the initial assumption. But as I said, this doesn't matter. City's still above all other teams, four lines below the 90 points line making them finish with 86 points. Still, the initial assumptions aren't far of, City won it being four points of the assumption, and five (not four) teams are above the 71 points line or the CL line.

Here's the season before that, which show the assumptions can be even more accurate.




It shows a title winning team (Utd) with only one point less than the assumption, and exactly 4 teams above the 71 points line. But, enough of the past.

I'm here to start a thread about the current APLT. I hope you find it as interesting as I do and we can follow it in this thread.

I'll update my graph after each matchday, showing the current standings.

For the moment, it's looking good for Chelsea supporters. Here's my own Excel graph:




So according to this graph, even Southampton are currently outperforming City. That is because they, like us, have had a more difficult schedule in the first half of the season. So while the APLT is definitely correct (as just another way or representing the standings) you should also take in mind that because we'll have an easier second half of the season (more par 3 games) dropping points in those game will be costlier and we'll go down faster in the APLT, than say if City were to lose a game with them having more par 1 games (but also more difficult games, making it more likely they'll drop points). Another interesting way I'd like to look at it in the future (maybe from August on) is instead of counting the 12 most difficult away games as par 1's, maybe count the home games against top four as par 1's, and the 8 most difficult away games as par 1's, coming to twelve par 1's as well. But for now, let's do it the classic way with the 12 most difficult away games as par 1's.

I hope I've peaked your interest.

[BlueLion. 21,491]

Absolutely fascinating to read. And I think this kind of encapsulates what a few of us have been saying regarding fixtures; City's first "half" to the season was considerably easier than ours, with us really only needing to go to the Emirates in terms of very "difficult" away fixtures. City conversely have a few tense looking trips, such as Old Trafford and of course Stamford Bridge this Saturday. Well worked out and presented, thank you.

Edited January 27, 2015 by Alex

[dUMB 189]

Nice, I'll definitely follow this thread!

[CHOULO19 24,332]

15 points ahead of City

[zolayes 14,489]

Absolutely fascinating to read. And I think this kind of encapsulates what a few of us have been saying regarding fixtures; City's first "half" to the season was considerably tougher than ours, with us really only needing to go to the Emirates in terms of very "difficult" away fixtures. City conversely have a few tense looking trips, such as Old Trafford and of course Stamford Bridge this Saturday. Well worked out and presented, thank you.

I think you meant City's first half was EASIER than ours ,,, but agree the article made interesting reading ...Before the 3point win was

introduced an average of 1.5 points game was title challenging this equated to 63 points for a 42 game season //

in practice now an average of 2 points a game should be challenging ie 76 points but lately this wouldnt often be enough ,

[Hostedenis 556]

What I like especially about the APLT, is that it shows teams that are on title course (or on a form good enough to become champions) by a horizontal line. If you play to par, you'll stay horizontal in the APLT. For example, since matchday 10, Manchester United have only dropped one point in the APLT. If they had not had their terrible start to the season, but played with the same form as the last 12 weeks, over all 38 matchdays they would end up with 86 points (dropping a point every 12 matchdays).

What I like about the APLT is that there's par 1 and par 3 games, and you can remain on a horizontal line (on 90 points course, by our assumption on title course) by drawing a game, as long as it's a par 1 game and not a par 3. It also makes clear that losing a game isn't that bad as long it's a par 1 game, we'll only drop 1 point in the APLT, but losing a par 3 game is more catastrophic for a team's ambitions, the team will go down three.

Same can be said about Soton; they were performing like a 90 point team would until the 11th matchday, but then came their horrible form in November and early December and they dropped 12 points in 5 games in the APLT. But since that horrible form, they've actually gotten back to performing better than a 90 points team with away wins over Manchester United and Newcastle, and a home win against Arsenal, and they've actually gone 4 points back up over 7 games and are now second in the APLT.

It also shows we have dropped points in the APLT three times so far this season: the draw away at Sunderland, the loss away against Tottenham and the away loss against Newcastle. The away draw to Sunderland was a par 3 game, we should've won that one if we wanted to end up with 90 points at the end of the season but the game was a draw so we dropped 2 points in the APLT. The Tottenham and Newcastle away games were par 1 games, we would've been okay with a draw because we would then still have played to par (ended up with 90 points at the end of the season if all games are played to par). We lost those two games, so dropped a point per game in those two games. However, there have been 5 occasions where we've performed better than par this season as well; the Liverpool away win, the Stoke away win, the Everton away win, the Swansea away win and the Crystal Palace away win, and we have thus gone up two points per each of those games in the APLT, currently placing us on the 96 point line.

If we win the City home game this weekend, we'll stay put and they'll drop a point, further opening our 15 point gap to a 16 point gap. If the game's a draw, we'll drop two points in the APLT and they'll stay put, closing the gap to 13 points. If they win, we'll drop three points in the APLT while they'll go up 2 points, closing the 15 point gap to 10 points.

I think you meant City's first half was EASIER than ours ,,, but agree the article made interesting reading ...Before the 3point win was

introduced an average of 1.5 points game was title challenging this equated to 63 points for a 42 game season //

in practice now an average of 2 points a game should be challenging ie 76 points but lately this wouldnt often be enough ,

I do indeed think that's what Alex meant, I don't think there's anyone here who would argue City have an easier second half to the season. Even City fans are beginning to admit it.

And exactly, like you say 76 point season isn't title contending anymore, hasn't been for quite some years, but it should still secure CL football, I think.

[BlueLion. 21,491]

I meant easier, my bad.

[kellzfresh 7,226]

Fantastic style. I don't really know how you got the criteria for difficult away games because I saw crystal palace there, but good idea.

Topic followed

[Hostedenis 556]

Fantastic style. I don't really know how you got the criteria for difficult away games because I saw crystal palace there, but good idea.

Topic followed

The 90 points for the season assumption can be achieved by winning all home matches and the seven "easiest" away matches (the three promoted teams and the 14th-17th ranked teams from the previous season) and draw the 12 remaining away matches.

Thus, there are 19+7=26 easier games, or par 3 games, and 12 more difficult games, or par 1 games. So we need to have 12 difficult away games, and these are decided by the 12 teams (13 without Chelsea) that were on top the previous season. Meaning: City, Liverpool, (Chelsea,) Arsenal, Everton, Tottenham, Man United, Southampton, Stoke, Newcastle, Crystal, Swansea and West Ham. So that's why Crystal Palace away is considered a par 1 game.

It just so happens that these 12 (or 13 with Chelsea) teams also form the top 12 (or 13) teams again this season so far.

Like I said at the end of my post, it might be interesting to, instead of counting the 12 most difficult away games as par 1's, count the 8 most difficult away games as par 1 and the four most difficult home games as par 1, and thus have again 12 par 1 games leading up to a 90 total for the title assumption. The par 1 games would then be City (home and away), Liverpool (home and away), Arsenal (home and away), Everton (home and away), Tottenham (away), Man Utd (away), Soton (away), Stoke (away).

For now I prefer the APLT that counts the 12 most difficult away games as par 1's, because it's the classic way most other people are doing it. I think it is a good way, because with the 12 top teams from last season the par 1 games include games like West Ham away and Newcastle away with teams who have been good this season, while the other system would count a team like Everton twice (both home and away game as par 1) while they have been underachieving a lot this season. I might change which games are par 1 and which aren't, going into next season, if that's what people on here prefer. Although I understand you don't quite get why Crystal Palace away gets to be a par 1 game while for example City at home isn't (which is why I said the system isn't perfect) but it doesn't really matter in the long run. Say we draw to City at home and win to Crystal away. In the first system (12 hardest away games = par 1) we would then drop 2 points in the APLT against City and win 2 points against Crystal. In the second system (4 hardest home + 8 hardest away games = par 1) we would then play on par twice and thus remain level in the APLT.

[Reddish-Blue 2,212]

Too much depth from the OP but an interesting read for those with spare time

[Hostedenis 556]

And now that all matches are played, we are back with more APLT! The updated table now looks like this:

We dropped two points by drawing a home game for the first time, a par 3 game. Southampton dropped three points by losing a home game. All other teams we follow played to par, with City drawing against us, a difficult away game, and thus playing to par 1. Arsenal won a home game, thus playing to par (par 3 game). United and Liverpool did the same, winning a home game and staying on par, while Spurs had an easy away game (also par 3) and they won their fixture against West Bromwich Albion.

So two points dropped, but I'm happy with where we are in the APLT (as I am with where we are in the actual table).

Actually, as it is right now, it actually looks like we'll win it, and there's two seperate races going on for second and fifth place.

Also remarkable how much to par United have been playing since their terrible form to the start of the season. Remember, playing to par should get you a 90 point season!

[Hostedenis 556]

And we're back with more APLT!

We played to par winning against Aston Villa in Villa Park, as did Southampton, United, Spurs and Liverpool. Arsenal dropped a point losing a difficult away fixture. And City dropped two points in the APLT by drawing an easy home fixture. Ohh the joy! Southampton has actually gone to equal height with them again!

It's actually still looking (if we look at it this way) like we'll comfortably win it, and there's two separate races going on for second and fifth place!

[dUMB 189]

City played 1-1 yesterday

[Hostedenis 556]

City played 1-1 yesterday

You are right, I edited the post and changed the graph.

It felt like they lost to me though

[Hostedenis 556]

The updated APLT graph is here!

Spurs, United and Liverpool are actually doing very good playing to par over the last 5 to 6 games, remember playing to par is title contending form. How United manage that with their upper crap football is beyond me. We're still comfortably top, but we do have a lot of par 3's coming up. That means a loss is more influential to our position in the APLT (than with a par 1 game) but also that we have an easier fixture list.

City went 2 points up with a difficult away win over Stoke. So happy with our late Everton win though!

[dUMB 189]

Nice 13 points lead sounds great, and you explained everything very good.

I've just read an article about APLT.

http://weaintgotnohistory.sbnation.com/2015/2/9/8001481/the-title-race-14-to-go

This guy's metodology is slightly different, but both are very good if you ask me.

[Hostedenis 556]

Don't want to type too much this week, still sad about the Burnley game. We had good penalty shouts, Barnes should've seen red and shouldn't have won them the corner that got them the goal, but all in all we should've been able to score two against Burnley. Shit happens, on to the next game. And I'm back, with more APLT:

City coming a little closer but we're still ahead and have an easier fixture list. Strange to see Southampton drop so much points and i don't like Liverpool heading towards Champions League football. But we're still comfortably first and I hope it stays that way. KTBFFH!

[Hostedenis 556]

What's happening to Southampton? Awful bit of form the last couple of weeks! Liverpool, and even more so Arsenal, have been on excellent form though, for about the last 7 games!

Here's what it looks like now, with both us and the Spurs having a game in hand: